World's largest ever successful IPO

[Rubber Duck]

Of course a U.S. recession is likely inevitable at some point. But it's not all doom and gloom for the U.S. Most of the current U.S. trade deficit is energy related. The U.S. really needs to do 3 things to be on healthy footing for the futre: Balance the budget, become a net producer of energy and raise interest rates a couple of points. Rise in interest rates will probably be the cause of the recession.

Consider this on Chinese investment in U.S. bonds:

Don't know the real exchange rate so I will use example of 10 Yuan to $1 for simplicity. The true market rate should probably be 60% of that or 6 Yuan to $1.

10 million yuan invested in $1million US bonds.
If interest rates rose from 5% to 8%, that bond would be worth maybe $800,00. If the Yuan were forced to true market value, that would convert back to 5.6 million yuan. That is potential loss of 44% on investment. In addition the price of all goods coming to the U.S. increases by 40% and the U.S. is more likely to return to manufacturing. China has much at stake in their relationship with the U.S.

The only way the US is going to be a net producer of Energy is to be much more efficient in way it is consumed/wasted. The introduction of energy taxes much in line with the rest of the World would achieve that but would tilt the scales heavily in the direction of a recession.

Raising Interest rates a couple of points would push the US into recession but would help to counteract the increasing risk of inflation. Of course combined with higher taxes that are required to restore the Government's Fiscal Budget that could be catastrophic.

Raising interest rates would reduce the risk of capital flight, as not only does it making lending more attractive in terms of current earning, but it makes it less risky as it will also shore up the dollar. Of course the resale value of T Bonds would also drop.

I think there is an awful lot at stake. Sure China is not going to be very pleased if looses money big time but they have the cash and are generating more all the time. Also if the dollar goes down the price of oil and other raw material will go down a lot as well in their terms. They can survive that. What the US must avoid at all costs, however, is to be seen as a basket case. It that scenario emerges you are going to be paying much higher rates of interest than present.

[StockDoctor]

Which tabloid you get THESE information from. Even in the poorest provinces the lowest wage in some assembly shop is $100 (thats 50 cents per hour), in southern provinces it ias $150 (75 cents per hour) and experienced workers can earn up to double.

Back Skipper? You're info is faulty, (even though 50 cents per hour is nothing to be proud about) you're off the mark again. My info isn't from any American tabloids, but I'd still even put those up against your Chinese government puke any day. Obviously being from ping pong or ying yang or wherever you're from, you buy everything you're fed by the State controlled media clowns over there and then goose step your way to blabber it all over the mostly US supported forums like this one.

Having been a stock and bond analyst for 25+ years, and lived and worked in London as a VP in International Tax investment programs, I know good research when I see it, and bull when you post it. The wage stats I quoted for "child labor" in China were taken from the kindof study I like. Instead of just relying on twisted stats from your type of sources, the study actually followed the products from the retail sales back all the way to the manufacturer and their actual payment and scheduling records for their child employees. Thirteen years old, 45 hours per week, 17 cents per hour, producing shirts under the National Football League, sold by Walmart in the US for $75 apiece. Something China should not be proud of, not to mention the US.

As for the ICBC ipo. It's still a State controlled bank, and if you want to compare apples to Asian pears, you'd have to be looking at the US Federal Reserve Bank, even though the US commercial banks could kick it's ass in many many areas. ICBC still isn't looking so hot after using those "record" sums to pay off bad debt. They still show almost 5% of their outstanding loans as non-performing. Of course, those of you who feel that you want to take advantage of the upside for the China bank, there are ways to invest in it's stock, and it's cheap. This big deal ipo was priced at 39 cents a share $USD. That's called a penny stock.

[Rubber Duck]

I am not doubting the validity of your research. And yes it is deplorable that the US should be exploiting child labour in this way. And we know that PRC statistics are not highly reliable.

However, you need to be a little objective too. As an experienced analyst you should realise that the price of individual shares is arbituary. To write them off as penny stock is rediculous and you know it. What matters is the gross worth of the offering, not how it is sub-divided.

I understand what you are saying regarding case studies and they are no doubt very useful. They do need, however, to be show to be representative of a wider picture in order to have any wider value. As yet you have not attempted to do this, so your almost anecdotal evidence carries limited weight.

If you are comparing this Chinese Bank with a the Federal Reserve you are making a number of erroneous assumptions. Whilst state owned ICBC is a Retail bank which the Federal Reserve is not. However, it does seem to be a bit disingenious to side swipe it for it bad-debt liabilities which have certainly been discounted in the IPO, when the main Function of the Federal Reserve these days it to write out IOUs from any foreign body prepared to risk lending the US money.

[denny007]

You are either retarded or your parkinson is more advanced than I thought.

1.
My info comes from business, I am buying lots of merchandise in China and I talk with factories. I know what salaries they pay.
Some of the factories are moving to another provinces because there is not enough workers in the south anymore.
2.
Learn how Chinese flag looks, you uneducated redneck.
And get yourselves glasses if you can not see different between Caucasian an Asian person.

[StockDoctor]

You are either retarded or your parkinson is more advanced than I thought.

1.
My info comes from business, I am buying lots of merchandise in China and I talk with factories. I know what salaries they pay.
Some of the factories are moving to another provinces because there is not enough workers in the south anymore.
2.
Learn how Chinese flag looks, you uneducated redneck.
And get yourselves glasses if you can not see different between Caucasian an Asian person.

Ahhh me soooo solly. Me now show you much respect. You am buying from factory. You pay a 15 dolla? Too much? Me think you not wealy no.

Me edumacated person. Go schools long time. No care how flag looks, not impotent. Have glasses and think you look like funny Skipper on Gilligan TV show.

[denny007]

Ahhh me soooo solly. Me now show you much respect. You am buying from factory. You pay a 15 dolla? Too much? Me think you not wealy no.

Me edumacated person. Go schools long time. No care how flag looks, not impotent. Have glasses and think you look like funny Skipper on Gilligan TV show.

You need to try harder. This even did not make me smile. It was more like "Ewww...embarrassing"

[Rubber Duck]

You need to try harder. This even did not make me smile. It was more like "Ewww...embarrassing"

Standard tactics unfortunately when logical arguments fail, but I agree it can work, if it is funny.

[StockDoctor]

Standard tactics unfortunately when logical arguments fail, but I agree it can work, if it is funny.

You thought Deeny007's / Skipper's comments were logical? I get a little tired of Denny and you insulting the US. You can be pro China, and pro IDN or whatever Duck, but it's not necessary for you to constantly trash the US to do it. Don't go down the same low road as that Denny007 wuss. He's a loser who has no loyalties to anything, and has to result to slimeball stuff, while he hides over there in bunga bunga land or wherever.

Surprised you two find it so easy to insult the country from which you both make most of any income from the net. Denny / Skipper, your blatant US trademark typos sure ain't makin money from Chinese traffic. You guys like your Chinese markets so much, why don't you stay there and out of ours?

[denny007]

You thought Deeny007's / Skipper's comments were logical? I get a little tired of Denny and you insulting the US. You can be pro China, and pro IDN or whatever Duck, but it's not necessary for you to constantly trash the US to do it. Don't go down the same low road as that Denny007 wuss. He's a loser who has no loyalties to anything, and has to result to slimeball stuff, while he hides over there in bunga bunga land or wherever.

Surprised you two find it so easy to insult the country from which you both make most of any income from the net. Denny / Skipper, your blatant US trademark typos sure ain't makin money from Chinese traffic. You guys like your Chinese markets so much, why don't you stay there and out of ours?

Whatever you say...

[Rubber Duck]

You thought Deeny007's / Skipper's comments were logical? I get a little tired of Denny and you insulting the US. You can be pro China, and pro IDN or whatever Duck, but it's not necessary for you to constantly trash the US to do it. Don't go down the same low road as that Denny007 wuss. He's a loser who has no loyalties to anything, and has to result to slimeball stuff, while he hides over there in bunga bunga land or wherever.

Surprised you two find it so easy to insult the country from which you both make most of any income from the net. Denny / Skipper, your blatant US trademark typos sure ain't makin money from Chinese traffic. You guys like your Chinese markets so much, why don't you stay there and out of ours?

Yes, another presumption you Americans like to make is that your paying for everything. Simply not true. You don't own the Internet. You haven't paid for all the infrastructure. US does generate the most lucrative traffic because you have higher access penetration that most places, and Americans are living on vast amounts of credit and borrowed time.

I have no expectations of traffic from the US and that I get at the moments only serves to mess up my statistics. True there are American investors who can see over the fence of the backyard and are active in China, but they are completely different breed from the Only dot com, Only US, Only ASCII mentality that prevails on here. The truth is money is made from ideas. The people that are going to make money have their own ideas. Most people on here are endlessly trying to emulate other's success. The only problem is that the successful had their ideas 10 years ago, and finished cleaning up about 5 years ago. Now we have tens of thousands trying to make a banquet from the sweepings off the floor.

America is very US centric, very dismissive of others. They govern the Internet for their own benefit and to the detriment of others. They cannot understand why there insistence that the Chinese should continue to navigate using Latin characters causes frustation. They cannot understand why when traffic from Asia is constantly blamed for phishing and fraud, and consequently browser support is denied that this might be a source of hostility.

A mature nation, like Britain, despite its pasts realises that it one Nation amongst many. It realises that it has to trade and compete with other nations and just hope to god it gets a level playing field. It realises that it has to participate in global issues such as the environment and security, rather than we select the bits we like and impose a solution and expect our allies for which most of the time we show utter contempt to drop into line behind us. Latest example is online gaming. Billions wiped off British Registered companies by a law that wasn't even properly debated in the US, let alone given wider international consultation.

Frankly, you are lucky to the loyal allies like Britain holding your corner in all your foreign policy debacles, but unless your attitude starts to change you are going to be very much on your own.

I expect China too is starting to get a little tired of the US, constantly putting her down, when China is the one picking up the Tab all the time.

[Anthony Ng]

The truth is, there are still too many ill-informed "investors" whose mental pictures of China remain like those 30 years ago. And there are people with hidden political or economic agenda who don't want to see China moving along a path of healthy development. So for someone with little first hand knowledge regarding the country or its language, it is very difficult to filter out the facts from the fiction (very often intentional lies).

Take the IPO of ICBC for example: even though it is the world's largest IPO ever, some people in the US are not aware of or try to downplay its significance, regardless of the FACT that it's now one of the largest banks WORLDWIDE.

It's really sad that this useful piece of information has turned into something of a fight thread. Yes, we know that Rubber Duck does have some interests (benefits) in China related domains (e.g. IDN), and his posting of these "good news" may be viewed by some as biased. But to be fair, he is also one of the more informed. And MOST if not all on DNForum are here mostly for the money. Community? Sharing? C'mon, give me a break.

[GiantDomains]

NS haven't seen you in ages, unless you've been around and I somehow missed you.

[StockDoctor]

If the Duck and the Skipper would stop slammin the US all the time, and just stick to promoting the good things about their countries, their banks, or IDNs or whatever, maybe they wouldn't run into the backlash. They are happy to take the US payouts in one hand and give US the finger with the other. I for one won't just read that crap without handing them back some.

[Steen]

Interesting piece I read recently:

Top HR execs (Chinese) in China make in excess of $90,000 US per year.

[denny007]

If the Duck and the Skipper would stop slammin the US all the time, and just stick to promoting the good things about their countries, their banks, or IDNs or whatever, maybe they wouldn't run into the backlash. They are happy to take the US payouts in one hand and give US the finger with the other. I for one won't just read that crap without handing them back some.

Peasant, could you cite me HOW in this thread I "slammed" the USA ? Unless you think YOU are the USA so slamming you is same as slamming USA. You are shame of the USA but fortunately people like you are an exception. All Americans I deal with are fine people and I like them. I even like Dubya, 'cause he such a comedian (in a good way).

So feel free to take your personal frustration, anger and envy on me, maybe try to make some new comments about my english or how ugly I am. Your shit makes me nothing and if it help your psyche, I will be glad. Maybe it averts you from beating your wife and kids instead - so here I stand, serve yourselves.

[Duckinla]

The collapse of the U.S. economy has been predicted for what, about 50 years now? Not sure why we feel obliged to keep defending it when each generation continually does better than the last.

Also if the dollar goes down the price of oil and other raw material will go down a lot as well in their terms

Quite the opposite, a fall in a U.S. dollar will cause higher prices for oil and materials, not lower. Much of the runup of the last 18 months was based on a weaker currency. Prices stayed much more flat for countries where the currency stayed stronger.

If a collapse in the U.S. economy were anticipated by the big money players, long term interest rates would be much higher. They are determined on the open market through bond auctions. I don't predict any kind of "collapse" but I am stunned that long-term rates continue to stay so low. I have a large investment in a reverse-bond fund that will increase in value if bond yields go up. So I have been anticipating higher rates for some time.

Of course combined with higher taxes that are required to restore the Government's Fiscal Budget that could be catastrophic.

No, the last 4 years have shown quite conclusively that tax revenues can increase when tax rates are lowered. That's a common mistake to associate revenues directly with rates. U.S. individuals and Corporations paid more taxes than ever in the last 12 months. They did it at lower rates which means that total income must have risen substantially. Which is exactly what the administration said would happen. Why do people find this so hard to accept?

[Anthony Ng]

NS haven't seen you in ages, unless you've been around and I somehow missed you.

I have been browsing (almost exclusively) the Fixed Price Sales section on a regularly/daily basis, just not in the posting/sharing mood. But when it comes to China, a topic that I not only have first hand knowledge of (the people, the language, the media), but also spent quite a lot of time reading and researching extensively since all the way back to the 1970s, I feel like saying something.