How to price an expiring traffic name

[domainicanicanica]

Hello,

Let's say I'm following an expiring traffic name at tdnam. Let's say GoDaddy's stats show 1,000 visitors per month. The traffic comes from links from other websites.

In addition, let's say that the best and most obvious keywords for this site get around 40 cents per click, according to Yahoo/Overture.

How would you determine an estimate of monthly revenue if pointed to a PPC site?

What would be your top bid for this name and why?

What other factors would you consider?

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Tom

[maxo]

First of all, I would check the domain on archive.org to determine what kind of site it used to be and if it can be converted easily. On the other hand you might determine where the visitors to that site are coming from.

Then I would checkout the links with the help of which you can gather information how long the traffic will last. (Example, if the links are placed on a blog it is most likely that it won't last long)

You might also checkout search engine rankings/position for the domain name, which can be a source of the traffic.

[cc_tiger]

its good info to me too.

[NZPoint]

while we are on this subject, how do we know if the PR for that site is original,, i have purchased few expired domain with PR 4 or 5 and as soon as i got holdof them and changed the name servers, PR droped to 0

[domainicanicanica]

maxo, thanks for your help. That's something I'll start doing.

But tell me if I'm wrong in the following assumption: Let's say GoDaddy figures are accurate, and it gets 1,000 unique visitors per month. The most obvious keywords are about 40 cents/click.

As a generalization, would I be wrong to estimate that 3% of these visitors would click?

And if that works out to 30 clicks/month, would I be wrong to estimate that the PPC company would pay me 50%/click (20 cents/click).

So my rough calculation puts it at $6.00/monthly revenue.

If I'm buying these on the aftermarket through tdnam, I don't think I'd pay more than 12-15 months of revenue.

What are your thoughts?

Tom

[WeBuyThe.Com]

TDNAM sales have been going VERY high since they added the 2 minute extension rule. I would be surprised to see the name sell for anything under 200 with that traffic count. Please report back with results and good luck!

[domainicanicanica]

Are my calculations sound or am I missing something?

[Banned: Preoccupy]

Thank you for the good information! :wubpink:

maxo, thanks for your help. That's something I'll start doing.

But tell me if I'm wrong in the following assumption: Let's say GoDaddy figures are accurate, and it gets 1,000 unique visitors per month. The most obvious keywords are about 40 cents/click.

As a generalization, would I be wrong to estimate that 3% of these visitors would click?

And if that works out to 30 clicks/month, would I be wrong to estimate that the PPC company would pay me 50%/click (20 cents/click).

So my rough calculation puts it at $6.00/monthly revenue.

If I'm buying these on the aftermarket through tdnam, I don't think I'd pay more than 12-15 months of revenue.

What are your thoughts?

Tom

[NZPoint]

Hello,

Let's say I'm following an expiring traffic name at tdnam. Let's say GoDaddy's stats show 1,000 visitors per month. The traffic comes from links from other websites.

In addition, let's say that the best and most obvious keywords for this site get around 40 cents per click, according to Yahoo/Overture.

How would you determine an estimate of monthly revenue if pointed to a PPC site?

What would be your top bid for this name and why?

What other factors would you consider?

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Tom

Here is my thoughts on this, lets say everything you say is right, and lets say I am administrating the auction and lets say I know all about PPC, domain parking, keywords payout and everything you mentioned.

Would i let that name go pass me!!! even making me not 20 but 10c a day?
remember, your not dealing with Computer here, there are real people of know how behind this and people of years of experience and pocket full of cash in front.

if you have pocket full of cash and dont mind risking go for it, as i mentioned above, i have purchased lots of names with page ranking of even 6 and expecting traffic of over few thousand a month, but they all went down the drain, do a good study before purchasing and dont rush into it, especially at auction time and ending soon.

[DNjet]

Are my calculations sound or am I missing something?

Your calculations are sound if thats what you are comfortable with. There is no set calculations for these auctions , bid up to what you feel comfortable with and get out if you don't get it. Over time you will know your comfort zone through experience. You must do your homework on these drops.

[maxo]

maxo, thanks for your help. That's something I'll start doing.

But tell me if I'm wrong in the following assumption: Let's say GoDaddy figures are accurate, and it gets 1,000 unique visitors per month. The most obvious keywords are about 40 cents/click.

As a generalization, would I be wrong to estimate that 3% of these visitors would click?

And if that works out to 30 clicks/month, would I be wrong to estimate that the PPC company would pay me 50%/click (20 cents/click).

So my rough calculation puts it at $6.00/monthly revenue.

If I'm buying these on the aftermarket through tdnam, I don't think I'd pay more than 12-15 months of revenue.

What are your thoughts?

Tom

Let's start from the beginning. The price $0.4/click does not seem realistic to me, because you do not really know where the traffic is coming from, also as far as I know it is the price Advertisers are bidding, which means it will be split between Yahoo and PPC company and then PPC company and you afterwards, which I think would leave you with around $0.16/click, but that's not approximate value as far as cpc is changing all the time.

After you check the site on archive.org, you might be able to find out if it will convert well. The average CTR I take is 20-30%, which does seem realistic for most of the names in my portfolio. Also remember, it depends on the parking provider as well, with optimized landing page with suitable headers you might get even higher CTR, while with 2-click landing pages your CTR might be even lower in some cases.

The revenue share between Parking Providers vary. For example Parked.com has 60% revenue share as far as I know and they might increase it in the future as they say it depends on the quality of traffic.

So it is very difficult to make any analysis, but I suggest that with the information you provided you might earn:

1000 x 0.2 (CTR) x 0.16 = $32/month

I do not want you to think that it is very accurate, but that's just a suggestion. It is really hard to make any estimations with such general information

[domainicanicanica]

maxo, thanks again. I've never sought traffic names before so the information you provided is very helpful.

20% - 30% CTR? Wow. I had no idea. Good to know.

[allfree]

The bulk of my domains are in the 20-40% CTR range also, but they are type-ins, not domains that had sites on them recently that are linked to.

The largest variable is typically CTR, and it takes experience to start to be able to guess this number with reasonable certainty. I've been surprised in both directions, with huge variances from my guesses at times. Takes experience IMO, if you are here for the medium/long haul, time to start experimenting and getting that aforementioned feel for the market.

[aclass]

domainicanicanica: I will also be testing in this field the next few months. Please update us as you have stats

[Paul_Kuhn]

I think, to price expiring traffic is only possible, when you own the domain for a minimum period of 3-4 weeks, so that you can work on finding the best priced keyword.

Here for example one of my domains:
Date Revenue(US$) Views Clicks CTR(%) Avg PPC(US$) RPM(US$)
Jun 29th 0.10 89 1 1.12 0.10 1.16
Jun 30th 2.88 103 15 14.56 0.19 27.95
Jul 1st 1.61 55 8 14.55 0.20 29.20
Jul 2nd 1.27 127 11 8.66 0.12 9.96
Jul 3rd 2.75 186 22 11.83 0.13 14.80
Jul 4th 4.34 159 25 15.72 0.17 27.27
Jul 5th 3.50 151 21 13.91 0.17 23.20
Jul 6th 2.54 181 22 12.15 0.12 14.02
Jul 7th 1.95 148 18 12.16 0.11 13.20
Jul 8th 2.45 119 13 10.92 0.19 20.55
Jul 9th 1.95 133 15 11.28 0.13 14.66
Jul 10th 6.23 214 32 14.95 0.19 29.12
Jul 11th 5.91 251 36 14.34 0.16 23.54
Jul 12th 3.47 164 21 12.80 0.17 21.14
Jul 13th 2.64 139 18 12.95 0.15 19.01
Jul 14th 6.31 101 18 17.82 0.35 62.46
Jul 15th 2.38 63 14 22.22 0.17 37.70
Jul 16th 2.99 100 20 20.00 0.15 29.93
Jul 17th 2.75 196 20 10.20 0.14 14.01
Jul 18th 7.88 217 30 13.82 0.26 36.34
Jul 19th 4.36 153 19 12.42 0.23 28.51
Jul 20th 5.51 139 27 19.42 0.20 39.61
Jul 21st 5.33 114 22 19.30 0.24 46.77
Jul 22nd 1.54 58 11 18.97 0.14 26.47
Jul 23rd 4.75 113 20 17.70 0.24 42.01
Jul 24th 5.19 166 30 18.07 0.17 31.25
Jul 25th 8.90 192 29 15.10 0.31 46.35
Jul 26th 5.76 157 22 14.01 0.26 36.69
Jul 27th 4.30 131 23 17.56 0.19 32.82
Jul 28th 2.12 110 12 10.91 0.18 19.27
Jul 29th 3.44 55 13 23.64 0.26 62.56
Jul 30th 4.44 101 15 14.85 0.30 44.00
Jul 31st 4.40 191 21 10.99 0.21 23.01
Aug 1st 5.74 357 39 10.92 0.15 16.06
Aug 2nd 7.62 284 44 15.49 0.17 26.83
Aug 3rd 2.10 172 21 12.21 0.10 12.21

What do you think , how much is it worth?
And much more interesting: will someone come and pay the price?

Ahoi!