Latest clear facts on GE.

[Bill Roy]

At the time of writing this and with less than 3 whole days to go Obama maintains a 6.4 point aggregated lead in the polls (RealClearPolitics.com).

The Electoral Vote count is as follows:

Barack Obama.......311 (238 solid, 73 leaning)

John McCain..........132 (127 solid, 5 leaning)

Toss-up States are:

Arizona (10 EV) - McCain leads by 4.4 points
Florida (27 EV) - Obama leads by 3.5 points
Georgia (15 EV) - McCain leads by 4.0 points
Indiana (11 EV) - McCain leads by 1.7 points
Missouri (11 EV) - McCain leads by 0.4 points
Montana (3 EV) - McCain leads by 3.8 points
North Carolina (15 EV) - Obama leads by 2.6 points
North Dakota (3 EV) - McCain leads by 1.0 points (I have based this on the single latest poll)

So even if all the 'toss-up' States actually went to McCain (and Florida and North Carolina are favoring Obama) then Obama would still win by 311 EVs to McCain's 227 EVs.

Rumours of movement in McCain's favour are not really justified, indeed Obama's lead has only reduced by 1.6 points over the last 8 days (dropping 2.1 points over the first 6 days but increased by 0.6 points yesterday), that averages out at a benefit of just 0.2 points per day. McCain being currently 6.4 points adrift would mean that to draw level with Obama would take another 32 days at this recent rate - but the election is in just under 3 days time!

Present conservative predictions of the outcome from RealClearPolitics.com (a Republican leaning site) is that Obama is going to win by 353 EVs - McCain's 185 EVs.

N.B. I have used the RealClearPolitics.com figures so as to not inadvertantly include my natural bias into the figures and their interpretation.

[Donald Aquilano]

BILLBO you're to bias towards Obama. You shouldn't put to much trust in the polls since most of them are skewed towards Democratic candidates. Come November 4th I expect a very tight race with it not being decided until late on Tuesday.

[Bill Roy]

Not just polls I rely on!

It is when McCain has to bus in 1,000's of school children to his rallies to try and make it look good that is the kind of thing that really gives the heads-up on the real situation and why such high profile Republicans are endorsing Obama.

bd77, the facts above include the polls from Fox, Battleground, and even Zogby, and even the site I use is a self confessed Republican supporting site, and they predict 353-185 in Obama's favour. So on what do you use to make your predictions, the entrails of a sacrificed goat?

[Focus]

Obama has literally already won this thing.......go BLUE!

[jdk]

I have not decided who I am voting for but what concerns me is:

- Obama does not recite the pledge of allegiance
- He does not place his hand over his heart
- He was pictured eating lunch with an anti-Israeli who's wife was on the FBI's Top 10 Most Wanted list
- He wants to remove "In God We Trust" from the US Quarters
- He wants to come into our homes and remove all handguns, literally taking them (This means you too Focus!)

I'm pretty scared what is going to happen. I was leaning his way, but now I am unsure which way to go.

This is why I don't get too involved with politics. Makes my blood pressure go up.

[DomainsInc]

I have not decided who I am voting for but what concerns me is:

- Obama does not recite the pledge of allegiance
- He does not place his hand over his heart
- He was pictured eating lunch with an anti-Israeli who's wife was on the FBI's Top 10 Most Wanted list
- He wants to remove "In God We Trust" from the US Quarters
- He wants to come into our homes and remove all handguns, literally taking them (This means you too Focus!)

I'm pretty scared what is going to happen. I was leaning his way, but now I am unsure which way to go.

You don't actually believe this do you?

[jdk]

You don't actually believe this do you?

I do not know what to believe. I have read sooo much it is hard to say what it true. I was pretty much set in stone who I was going to vote for until last night. Now I'm just not sure.

It just seems there is too much darkness surrounding Obama and the truth (whatever it may be).

[Carter]

When this election finish?
It's time for turn back to domaining.

P.s. Obama will win 100%

[jdk]

I guess there shouldn't be anything to be scared of. Things always have a way of correcting themselves.

[draggar]

Florida (27 EV) - Obama leads by 3.5 points

And people wonder why they're all on Florida. I can't watch TV for 5 minutes without seeing an ad slamming one candidate, I can't open my mailbox without at least 5 piece of mail telling me who I should vote for.

I can't wait for it to be over.

As for the polls, they can easily be manipulated. If I surveyed 1,000 people in Miami, West Palm Beach, and Jacksonville then it would look like Obama is way in the lead here but then if I went to places like Jupiter Beach, Okeechobee, and Wellington then it would look like McCain is way in the lead for Florida.

Plus, from what I've seen, liberals are more likely to take these surveys and to voice their opinions (when was the last time you saw a mass demonstration / protest for (in support of) conservatives?

Also, the media loves to sway elections - just look at 2000 when the mass media had called that Gore won Florida when the polls were still open. They said "it was official" even though the panhandle was still open (they're on central time, not eastern) so many people who would have voted went home (as reported by many polling places at that time). In a nutshell, everyone waiting to vote on the panhandle were told by the media that their votes did not count (and that area is usually a strong conservative area).

Don't count anything or anyone out until after the election is over.

From JDK:

- Obama does not recite the pledge of allegiance
- He does not place his hand over his heart

I agree with this and it scares me. IMO this is a slap in the face to our country.

BTW - I've already voted and I voted for neither of the two that everyone seems to think are the only ones running.

[Bill Roy]

jdk, if I got 500 people to post that the domain funs8ehhl4jfbgu93306mdosonebrhfh.ru was worth $10 million would you believe it? It would be total bullsh*t wouldn't it! And yet you are reciting this total absolute Repug cr*p and saying you do not know if it is true! Give us a break, only the most mind dead Repugs now think like that, and generally they are the ones who want to believe in this cr*p!

Some great news just on the wire, Gallup now gives Obama a 10 point lead! Yes folks we could be going into double digit victory in this election.

Dragger, well done for voting.

But to think that Obama does not recite the pledge of allegiance or put his hand over his heart is preposterous, but poor old McCain lost your vote Dragger, that is bad news for him.

[jdk]

jdk, if I got 500 people to post that the domain funs8ehhl4jfbgu93306mdosonebrhfh.ru was worth $10 million would you believe it? It would be total bullsh*t wouldn't it! And yet you are reciting this total absolute Repug cr*p and saying you do not know if it is true! Give us a break, only the most mind dead Repugs now think like that, and generally they are the ones who want to believe in this cr*p!

Some great news just on the wire, Gallup now gives Obama a 10 point lead! Yes folks we could be going into double digit victory in this election.

What was the domain again?

[draggar]

but poor old McCain lost your vote Dragger, that is bad news for him.

They both lost my vote and honestly I think this election we'll not only see record turnouts you'll also see a large number of people who vote for other candidates than the main two.

You also just did what the media loves to do. You made it sound like I voted for Obama, which I did not (by saying that McCain lost my vote). Like the media you took what I said and changed the meaning just slightly to favor one side (nothing against you, just proving how easily it can be done by the media).

Too bad most people only take ~15% (2 out of 13 here in FL) of the candidates seriously.

[jdk]

edit - Here I am talking politics which I am not going to do. Unsubscribing

[Bill Roy]

Dragger, no I interpreted your vote as for 'neither candidate' but considering the McCain campaign invested in time, effort, and money in trying to get people to believe the bullsh*t and vote for him it did not work, therefore his (McCain's) campaign is the bigger loser of the two if having believed their campaign you voted for somebody else.

Clear logic.

[draggar]

Dragger, no I interpreted your vote as for 'neither candidate' but considering the McCain campaign invested in time, effort, and money in trying to get people to believe the bullsh*t and vote for him it did not work, therefore his (McCain's) campaign is the bigger loser of the two if having believed their campaign you voted for somebody else.

Clear logic.

NP, but as for the amount of money McCain is spending here as compared ot the amount Obama is spending:

In the mail between yesterday and today, my wife and I received:
4 pro-McCain pamphlets
6 pro-Obama pamphlets
5 anti-McCain pamphlets
2 anti-Obama pamphlets

They're both spending a lot of money on trying to get our votes in the swing state with the highest number of electorates available. They're both investing a lot here in Florida. While both only lost a few dollars on me just imagine that over all of Florida. Both are spending millions just on Florida and I'm sure they're spending as much in other swing states.

Personally, I do think Obama is going to win (don't take that as a sign of me supporting him) - he's been saying all of the right things that the average American wants to hear and most are either overlooking, ignoring, or don't even know about his faults plus McCain hasn't been doing a good job of showing people that he isn't Bush.

[Donald Aquilano]

Not just polls I rely on!

It is when McCain has to bus in 1,000's of school children to his rallies to try and make it look good that is the kind of thing that really gives the heads-up on the real situation and why such high profile Republicans are endorsing Obama.

bd77, the facts above include the polls from Fox, Battleground, and even Zogby, and even the site I use is a self confessed Republican supporting site, and they predict 353-185 in Obama's favour. So on what do you use to make your predictions, the entrails of a sacrificed goat?

I know you're getting excited about Obama chances but come on are you going to believe the polls? Do you know how many people lie when asked who their going to vote for? Give it a rest buddy.....I have had enough of this election its been going on now for over two years. IMO were probably ****ed either way concerning the candidates I just believe its less with McCain.

I make my predictions by talking to people in my area. Even though Maryland is heavily Democratic and will be won by Obama most people I speak with will be voting for McCain. Obama scares the shit out of them especially on the tax issue and his past associations with radicals.

BTW.....Polls have been shown to be wrong in the past so why would I put my faith in them this time?

[Bill Roy]

bd77, yes polls have been shown to be wrong in the past, but then again so have those who believe what Republican politicians say!

But more to the point is that polls conducted professionally and without bias have been shown to be right far more often than they have been shown to be wrong. So I would rather go with polls than look at the entrails of a sacrificed goat or listen to the inane ramblings of a Republican politician trying to persuad people that they are within the margin of error in polls when they are demonstrably not. (Mind you as McCain has openly admitted he does not understand economics and therefore the fact that he does not understand statistics is hardly surprising. I mean come on, when was it he said the 'fundamentals of our economy are strong'? Then tried the lamest ploy of all by saying he meant that the workforce was strong!)

But hey, only about 73 1/2 hours left.

Dragger, well please explain his (Obama's) faults, let's have a clear and open discussion.