www.bestboy.org

How much ?

[morel]

What applications does this domain name have? How would you expect a buyer to use bestboy.org?

[GiantDomains]

All I know of is a best-boy in the film industry, who works under the key grip. Try posting it for sale on mandy.com, or indiewire.com, a freelance best boy may want to pick it up as a resume site.

boy team,boy group,boy finder,personal website and so on.

[Kid Kool]

good thinking doberry. i was wondering where i recognized the term from.

[GiantDomains]

I don't think denis (the seller) did, lol.

[morel]

I totally agree with Doberry. The only apparant use (and it is a legitimate use) is as the resume site of a best-boy in the film industry. It has to be a personal site because of the .org.

Thus, the chances of being approached by a best boy are very, very slim.

So here is my appraisal:

there is a 1% chance of finding a buyer willing to pay $100 ---

thus the worth of the domain: $1.

The other uses that Denis mentioned are bogus, IMO.

-----------------------

P.S

I like this kind of percentage based appraisal. I will be doing it more often in the future.

[DomainPairs]

I bought *****-boy.com by mistake, but I might put some galleries on it and submit them to tgps unless someone wants it for something.

[options]

Originally posted by morel

there is a 1% chance of finding a buyer willing to pay $100 ---
thus the worth of the domain: $1.

And if you have a 100% chance of finding a buyer willing
to pay $100, does it have $100 value?

[morel]

Originally posted by options


And if you have a 100% chance of finding a buyer willing
to pay $100, does it have $100 value?

makes sense to me.

[options]

Originally posted by morel


makes sense to me.

No, it would be worth much more.

[morel]

Originally posted by options


No, it would be much more worth.

Well, here is the formula that I have been using:

possible value = probability of purchase * purchasing price at that probablity. Add of all the possible values to get the expected value. This is sort of a variant of Huygen's principle.

So:

If there is a 100% chance of finding a buyer at $100 and a 0% chance of finding a buyer at any other price:

value = (1 * 100) = 100

If there is a 90% chance of finding a buyer at $100, and a 10% chance of finding a buyer at $200:

value = (.9 * 100) + (.1 + 200) = 90 + 20 = $110

If there is a 70% chance of finding a buyer at $100, a 20% chance of finding a buyer at $200, and a 10% chance of finding a buyer at $1000:

value = (.7 * 100) + (.2 * 200) + (.1 * 1000) = 70 + 40 + 100 = $210

and so on...

[options]

Originally posted by morel

If there is a 100% chance of finding a buyer at $100 and a 0% chance of finding a buyer at any other price:

value = (1 * 100) = 100

it has more sense but is impossible in real life.

If there is a 70% chance of finding a buyer at $100, a 20% chance of finding a buyer at $200, and a 10% chance of finding a buyer at $1000:

value = (.7 * 100) + (.2 * 200) + (.1 * 1000) = 70 + 40 + 100 = $210
and so on...

That's more probable and I would agree on appraisal.
However in this case you have a 100% chance to find a buyer
at $100, but the name is more worth.

[DomainPairs]

So how would you value a name like ford.com if I had a valid use for it - say it was the info site about an old roman ford.

[morel]

Originally posted by DomainPairs
So how would you value a name like ford.com if I had a valid use for it - say it was the info site about an old roman ford.

In order to obtain ford.com you would probably have to buy the Ford corporation, which is probably something on the order of $30-$40 billion dollars.

[GiantDomains]

^^^
shameless self promotion

[jberryhill]

You are failing to normalize your integral, son. Picture a straight line with the following values, representing the demand curve for the domain name (actually a straight line):

(.9 , $100 )
(.6 , $200 )
(.3 , $300 )

Now, by your method, if you take the data points at .9 and .3, then you get a value of (.9 x 100) + (.3 x 300) = 180

But if you take all three data points from the SAME line, you get:
(.9 x 100) + (.6 x 200) + (.3 x 300) = 300

Under Huygen's Principle, a wavefront w(x,y,t) at T+(delta-t) can be constructed using circular wavefronts of size [c X (delta-t)] for all points on w(x,y,T). What you are missing is that each circular wavefront contributes a unique, non-overlapping point to the projected curve at T+(delta-t) in a direction normal to w(x,y,T). Crack open your copy of Jenkins & White and have another look at the diagram.

[morel]

Originally posted by jberryhill
You are failing to normalize your integral, son. Picture a straight line with the following values, representing the demand curve for the domain name (actually a straight line):

(.9 , $100 )
(.6 , $200 )
(.3 , $300 )

Now, by your method, if you take the data points at .9 and .3, then you get a value of (.9 x 100) + (.3 x 300) = 180

But if you take all three data points from the SAME line, you get:
(.9 x 100) + (.6 x 200) + (.3 x 300) = 300

Under Huygen's Principle, a wavefront w(x,y,t) at T+(delta-t) can be constructed using circular wavefronts of size [c X (delta-t)] for all points on w(x,y,T). What you are missing is that each circular wavefront contributes a unique, non-overlapping point to the projected curve at T+(delta-t) in a direction normal to w(x,y,T). Crack open your copy of Jenkins & White and have another look at the diagram.

I am not referring to the Huygen's principle used in physics, I am referring to Huygen's principle of probability.

What I am trying to do is to view a domain from the perspective of a game. For me, purchasing a domain is like playing a game of chance. If you assume this (that a domain is like playing a game of chance), then the question then becomes, how much are you willing to pay for this game? That is, what is a fair price?

Huygen's principle of probability can be stated as follows:

Consider the following game.

Prizes....Chances
------------------------
$a.............p
$b.............q

According to Huygen's principle, if there are two prizes of worth $a and $b, and p chances of getting $a, and q chances of getting $b, then the fair price is:

fair price = (ap + bq)/(p + q)

This can be generalized a bit for n prizes. Using probabilities, we can formulate Huygens as follows:

Prizes....Probability of winning the prize
---------------------------------------------------
$a1..............................p1
$a2..............................p2
. .
. .
. .
$an..............................pn

(Note that p1 + p2 + ... + pn = 1).

Then, according to Huygens, a fair price is:

fair price = (a1 * p1) + (a2 * p2) + ... + (an + pn)

No calculus is needed for this.



So how does this apply to domains? I think that we can consider purchasing a domain, say bestboy.org, as a game of chance with the following prizes and probabilities:

Prizes.....Probability of winning the prize
----------------------------------------------------
$100.......................0.7
$200.......................0.2
$1000.....................0.1

Note that .7 + .2 + .1 = 1.

According to Huygens, a fair price would be:

fair price = (.7 * 100) + (.2 * 200) + (.1 * 1000) = $210

Note that by "prize", I mean selling the domain at the given prize.


I think that this is a good system for evaluating the value of a domain name (value of name = fair price in the game).

I would be delighted to continue this conversation with you, if you'd like.


Cheers,
David

note: minor edits made for clarification

[NamePopper.com]

Originally posted by morel
I would be delighted to continue this conversation with you, if you'd like.

I think we all would be delighted.