Prediction: 100 million .com domains registered by end of 2011

[rkbdomain]

I went through the last 7 years of registration data from HosterStats, and if registrations continue at their current pace, there should be 100 million .com domains registered by the end of 2011.

Of course, things can change, and one thing interesting I found is that there were a couple months in 2007 in which the total number of domains registered actually declined. This was at the same time the stock market was at an all-time high, and about to completely fall apart. Perhaps .com domain registration is a stock market predictor?

[DomainMagnate]

hey rbk, haven't seen you on the domaining space for some time, still got those 5N's?

I think you might be right here. I thought there were still only around 80M .com's regged until now and after checking the stats I see it's over 95M! Don't think it's gonna have much of an effect on anything, but would be cool to see .com cross the 100M mark.

[rkbdomain]

Only have a small holding of NNNNN.com's now.

The crazy thing is that we were just ahead of our time. With the ever-increasing registration of .com's and the growth of the Chinese internet, the emergence of 4.cn as a good place to buy and sell numeric domains, etc., these domains are nearly bought out again, although this time it is much more of a slow, gradual pace of registration than back in the buyout mania of '08.

I realized this during a random check of the NNNNN space recently, and it prompted me to return to domain-blogging. I guess although .com registrations remain as popular as ever, the domain blogs and forums have quieted down a lot since the excitement in '08.

[jmcc]

I went through the last 7 years of registration data from HosterStats, and if registrations continue at their current pace, there should be 100 million .com domains registered by the end of 2011.

It is possible but there are other factors at work. There's a graph of .com registrations from 2004 to 2011 which might make the trends easier to see.

Of course, things can change, and one thing interesting I found is that there were a couple months in 2007 in which the total number of domains registered actually declined. This was at the same time the stock market was at an all-time high, and about to completely fall apart. Perhaps .com domain registration is a stock market predictor?

In 2007, the .com was subject to massive domain tasting and this made the new/deleted figures oscillate wildly. In August/September 2007, I think that one of the main domain tasting operations in Florida was taken out in legal action as they had been targeting Dell's (and others) trademarks as part of the tasted domains. Apart from the five day window, the domain tasting problem has been drastically curtailed so what you see in the current drops are often last year's bad domain decisions.

Regards...jmcc

[rkbdomain]

It is possible but there are other factors at work. There's a graph of .com registrations from 2004 to 2011 which might make the trends easier to see.

In 2007, the .com was subject to massive domain tasting and this made the new/deleted figures oscillate wildly. In August/September 2007, I think that one of the main domain tasting operations in Florida was taken out in legal action as they had been targeting Dell's (and others) trademarks as part of the tasted domains. Apart from the five day window, the domain tasting problem has been drastically curtailed so what you see in the current drops are often last year's bad domain decisions.

Regards...jmcc

Thanks for the info! So what you are saying is maybe I should not base stock market investing strategy on .com registration statistics?

[katherine]

I don't invest in the stock market, I invest in domains

[Stian]

I don't invest in the stock market, I invest in domains

I put a little in both.

[Gerry]

there should be 100 million .com domains registered by the end of 2011.

With about 50,000 plus dropping daily...

[jmcc]

Thanks for the info! So what you are saying is maybe I should not base stock market investing strategy on .com registration statistics?

The domain market makes the stock market look downright predictable and it has more small bubbles than a foam bath.

Regards...jmcc

[axeman]

You can actually see buying confidence in domains wane when the stock market goes through a correction IMO, something i have noted for quite a while now.

[Raider]

If this prediction is true, then registrations of Mobi will be far greater... It was not long ago when we were told Mobi will be the next dot com, That sales of handheld devices far exceed the number of desktop sales and therefore dot mobi is will only grow in popularity, More people will use Mobi because it's the only way to view pages in the correct format...

Forgive me, every time I see the word "prediction" I always like to poke fun at the mobi fanatics who were proven dead wrong.

Back to the OT... I think 100 Million is a stretch, I see more domainers allowing their low quality domains to drop than ever before, many of which are not being grabbed or re-registered.. I also think domainers are becoming more savvy in regards to quality, their ridding themselves of the junk or what they perceive as junk in their portfolios..

Of course we will always have newbies buying up worthless domains, but in this economy, increased reg fees and parking revenue at it's lowest ever, the number of registrations from newbies will also decrease, same could be said

Just my opinion.

[jmcc]

On 31st January 2012, the .COM TLD had more than 100 million active domain names.

Regards...jmcc

[DomainMagnate]

close enough!