I think this is funny

[jag5311]

Have any of you guys realized how many domains out there are registered, but there is nothing to them. I mean, i bet if you were to take 100% of the domains registered, only about 40% are probably up and running. Maybe not even that. It was just an observation that came to me, probably hit you guys years ago.

my 2 cents
bryan

[GiantDomains]

Actually. i think less that 1% are developed. 40% is very high.

[DomainPairs]

If you look at the names that are dropping you can see why most of them have never been used.

[cxz]

More than half of com net org will be dropped in one year.

[bidawinner]

Doberry,

I have meant for sometime to bring this up..now seems appropriate.

Lets say 5% of all .coms are developed out of 20 million registered.

so 1 million sites are actually developed.

We know that there are probably ..what..maybe 100,000 .coms that are held by speculators with ranging from extremely valuable to medium valuable... $500 and up .

Yes, we understand many more are held by speculators..I'm simply discarding the junk ..

So out of 21 million .coms ..we realize that "really" only 1.1 million or so have any monetary value at all.


At 1.1 domains we have reached a saturation point .. everything else is "junk" for lack of a better word.


Can we then take those numbers and translate that potential for value over to any extension?

.Info is nearing it's point of "value" saturation.. for the most part all the "good" names are gone...Info is near that point..?

http://www.whoisreport.com/domain-counts/


The reason we will never see any of the other extensions reach the level of registrations of .com has less to do with whether or not the new extensions are deemed "valuable" by speculators but more to the point that by history we now know where that saturation for value is..1.1 million ..give or take a bit.

A) .com was the only game in town ten years ago..and "we" the market had not yet discovered what makes a domain valuable , type-ins, marketablility, and the limited depth of a dictionary we not fully recognized at that time.

B) A is history and in the domain business we HAVE learned from A....the registrations in the new extensions are more "quality" registrations based on our education of A. "We" dont regisiter myfavoritenonse.com(.info,.biz,.US, etc..) any more ..(well ..fore the most part)

This is my response to .comers who take off on this .com will always be king no other extension will ever come close to the number of .com registrations.

I agree..they never will and that proves nothing more than the fact the we are wiser today than the .comers of yesterday.

Most any of the top TLD extensions will retain an inherent monetary value as we move forward..but ONLY those top generic words, common phrase easily marketed etc..

That brings us to this...

OK.. so we have roughly 1.1 million domains in EACH extension with any value.. of those 1.1 million .coms how many actually are TRUE type-ins.. none of this "quasi" type-in nonsense.. I mean real type-ins .. 10% ..100,000 domains ? overly liberal on that ..but lets start with that number .

I will use my arbitrary number of $500 ... well thats where the variables expand.. is a domain with 3 type-ins a day =$500 .. could a domain that only gets 3 natural hits a day be worth 10k ? could a domain that gets 100 naturals only be worth $500 ?

As the web grows, as the new extensions take hold ..as they are all over the world..it is becoming very clear .com will have literally MILLIONs of drops as it falls to it's true value stauration of around 1.1 million domain..you'll see wls fail when this begins in an attempt to shore up the "flood" of expirations.

You'll also see (already happening) most webmasters and their business partners savy enough to realize the web is coming of age and that any extension is fine as long as it is one of the top 1.1 million words/phrases of whatever extension.. AND domain speculators are also learning that many of those 1.1 million domains ..can bring returns of 100%,200%, 1000 percent returns; and that 100,000 or so of those 1.1 million have the potential to translate into returns of 1000%, 5000% and a select few even higher, and thats what this dance is all about ....

Just my opinion of course ..yours may vary

[jag5311]

Very nice!! I liked reading that alot. Very informative also. See, I post a simple question, and a novel gets made. j/k. I like to see very detailed posts made.

thanks
bryan

[bidawinner]

Wel thanks jag..

once a month I try and break out of my usual short nonsensical posts and create a more length thought enhanced nonsensical post

But I do believe with a little give and take ..it's a fair summary of where we were and where we are heading ..at least short term 3-4 years...

[jag5311]

So basically what you were saying, is that the only domains that are truely worth the hair on our asses, are those in the 1.1 million range? What is your opinion about the possible addition of newer TLDS, like .health, .xxx, ect..

Bryan

[fizz]

Interesting reading bid - thanks.

[bidawinner]

Jag,

For the most part any generally accepted extension will to some degree have roughly the same 1.1 million words/phrases

What you will see though are values for a word/phrase associated more with an extension.

For example: .PRO comes out next month..set aside the new restrictions for a moment .

Musicals.Pro ? not that great correct..still maybe $500 to the right person... Musicals.com 3k ? Musicals.info 2k4K ..

I think this is one of the new roads we are heading towards for valuations.. thats been becoming much clear the past 6 months or so..IMO of course

[bidawinner]

This article by Julie Wheeler describes the same sentiment about CCTLDs..

"NeuStar claims that patriotism is the top reason for registering a .us domain. This makes some sense. If you are a citizen of this country, you may want to call attention to the fact through your domain name. The .com names never really made sense for individuals and aside from .name, .us is not a bad option for patriotic Americans with a Web presence.

But what about businesses? It always seemed that companies using country code domain names—the most common being .uk for Britain, and .au for Australia—were preventing themselves from conducting business outside these countries because they are more difficult to find for people who are unaccustomed to surfing by country codes.

But it's not going to be this way forever. With the recent introduction of new TLDs into the market, the public is being slowly weaned off of automatically tacking a .com to the end of any word to find a Web destination. "