For Sale The Drops are Boring

[Beachie]

Is it me, or are the drops really dull at the moment?

Maybe I'm just yearning for the good old days when you could hand-reg one word .com's with 8000 ovt+ext :'( :-D

 

[mole]

Yes, it does "seem" that way. The worrying part is that people seem to be paying good money for junk or tm trips. Is it because buyers are bored?

 

[mike031]

yes... indeed! it gets really depressing while anticipating for good things to happend but in reality things have changed and keep twisting

 

[Beachie]

Yes, it does "seem" that way. The worrying part is that people seem to be paying good money for junk or tm trips. Is it because buyers are bored?

Definately. The quality has dropped, but the money keeps flowing at the same rate.. We've seen quiet times in the past, so it will probably pass..

 

[mike031]

I'm the patient type but for anyone sitting here waiting and waiting... It will surely drive you crazy sooner or later, unless... You start exploring and expanding to different niches and really start taking risks in unheard of territories :0

 

[Sharpy]

I agree,

and the drops can only continue to get more and more boring. Every day, domains fall out of the hands of "end users" who don't renew for whatever reason. Domains have been doing that regularily for the past 5-6 years. And just as regularily, as speculators pick up these domains, they enter the "spec cycle". Meaning that the name will get passed around from speculator to speculator to speculator, for eternity. It might even find an end user who uses it, but one thing's for sure, it will mosy likely never get to pending delete again.

Take the next five days. 3-3letter .coms will drop. What are the chances they will ever "drop" again?

Right now there are only 5 3letter .coms in all of redemption.

There are only 19 3letter .coms "On Hold" I'd say 10-15 of those won't get to redemption. And the ones that do? So what? Where's the excitement? If BD doesn't get them then Pool or EDC will. Then they go to auction. oooooo.

The only "excitement" on drop day ladies and gentlemen is brought to you by the "diseased Snapnames" and the "all but useless GD/WWD" Yes those are your only hopes of getting a decent/good/great/awesome name at a steal of a price.

And don't even try to use your desktopapi with enom in the hopes that you might get lucky and grab a gem. eNom has closed its doors to those applications during the daily drop period now.

And I'm just using 3letter .coms as an example. They are not the be all to end all. But they are a pretty good indicator of drop day quality. Over the next 5 days, single word names like headgear.com and refurbished.com will be shaking the foundations on drop day. And that PR7 dandy "eurostadiums.com" will rear it's ugly head. And lets not forget this PR6 beaut "bitbeamer.com"

I'm not cynical.

 

[Steen]

Just refocus your time on someplace else, or adjust your view. I put a lot less effort into the drops lately (for the last 8 months) and quite glad I do.

 

[NameWolf]

Well I think that both parties are getting wiser. The domain owneres are getting aware of the value of their commodities and the catchers are trying their best to increase their chances to compete with the others.

 

[skylight]

more and more domain speculators entering this industry..this makes us boring if we do not have big wallet.

Those with big cash can still enjoy throwing their money into auction and feel some excitement

 

[actnow]

There are many other threads over the past year, that sounds just like this one.

It does appear that we are paying (bidding) alot more for mediocre names.
I am guilty of bidding on crappy names.

Since, the registrars are being more aggressive about renewals. And, more people
are contacting end users directly. I believe we have seen the end of the days of
"easy pickings".

The business world goes thru many 'feast or famine cycles'. But, I believe it will be
many years before you will see a lot of quality names hit the drop business again.
If, ever!

It is now the time to speculate on what will be in huge demand two to three years from
now. And, start positioning yourself to be a "player" in that segment.

Look for "voids" that are not presently being satisfied.

A clear example of some some voids that our members
spotted and positioned themselves as the expert is Duke's
www.DNJournal.com

Or, Howard's www.PPCIncome.com

There are and will be tons of opportunities available to you
in this virgin category.

It only requires you to ACTNOW.

 

[QuantumBeam]

OR put your dollars in Realty.......good ole plain dirt, land, raw land. There will always be more people. How could you possibly go wrong in LAND or homes ?
d

 

[Steen]

Let's hope SnapNames can spice things up.

 

[clemzonguy]

If you thought the market was dry now (and I do) wait until next year.....

As a niche buyer (for the most part) I am finding no names at all of interest to me lately (since I bought most of them 2-3 yrs ago and have already made inquiries concerning sites that were already owned). I find myself even going after some mediocre names here and there but nothing that really seems worthwhile in the longrun (at an affordable price to me). Meanwhile there are those companies who are buying up any and every generic type-in .com even if the site may only get a trickle of traffic per day and have a low overture score in the lower hundreds. I have heard some other explanations regarding this but as more people go online in upcoming years demand will go up, traffic will increase, and prices will increase. I am getting more offers now on sites than I have ever received at any point in the past, including new TLDs (from endusers).

It's still not TOO late .....

 

[Jack Gordon]

And don't even try to use your desktopapi with enom in the hopes that you might get lucky and grab a gem. eNom has closed its doors to those applications during the daily drop period now.

Sharpy, can you elaborate on this? That has not been my experience...

 

[lionheart]

The proliferation of gTLDs is another factor to be considered. So far ICANN have been (in my opinion) deliberately slow about expanding the namespace, but they have now adopted a process which must inevitably lead to a criteria-based expansion, rather than just *selecting* a few TLDs like .info and .biz

Within 3 or 4 years there will probably be another 20 gTLDs (simply because that many applicants will meet ICANN's criteria) and that should mean that there are *vastly* more generic word domain names available for registration, which in turn should mean a collapse in value for most domains (except perhaps the archetypal .com which is less easy to predict).

People have been saying that .info and .biz may pick up in value as user-recognition increases. I would say that will be more than offset by the arrival of this wave of new gTLDs which will enter the market in the next few years (I'm not referring to the little bunch os sTLDs going through selection at ICANN right now).

I sold History.info for $5000 in June. I had too many other domains to develop so I decided to let that one go. A pretty good generic name, well-suited for a .info suffix... but still only $5000. I think the .info names will go down in value by 2008.

The area of uncertainty (for me) is .com

This mammoth has continued to take centre-stage. The questions I ask are these:

When the tide of new gTLDs starts arriving in 2006/2007/2008, will .com become even more desirable as the only readily recognised ending, in the face of ever more confusing alternatives? In which case, whoever's held on to the decent names will be sitting on highly valued cyber realty?

Or... will the ever-increasing number of gTLDs result in greater public dependence on Search Engines, and a decline in the relevance of *any* endings?

I personally think .com is secure for the short-term future at least.

Finally, I can't help wondering when ENUM will dig in, and to what extent that will have a good or bad effect on domain name values. As different media and technologies get integrated, will your domain name cease being simply a web-address or e-mail address, and will it instead become your much easier to memorise phone number or general identity. It amazes me that we still use long strings of numbers for our phones (well, most of us) when domain names would be far more intuitive and easier for friends to remember. I can't remember any of my 4 brothers phone numbers, but I know all their e-mail addresses because words are far easier to recall than lists of numbers (which is all the words are in fact).

In my fantasy dreams, I wake up one morning to hear that technology has 'adopted' the domain name system in a much more far-reaching set of functions, and my domain names now point not only to my website but my phone, my bank, my credit-card, my TV channels and my home address... and the newscaster (in this dream) says: "Some people have registered dozens of domains and suddenly find that they are worth thousands of dollars/pounds" and I think, I'm glad I never sold them, now I am richer than I ever imagined and my wife will stop killing me for the money I've spent on domains..."

"There you are, honey - I told you I knew what I was doing!" I will say...

Well, unless this kind of technological expansion of the functions of the DNS gets going, I think many domain values will drop over the next 4 years, as the supply outstrips the demand...

So these days I just buy domains if I want to actually use them. I keep selling off some of my list, just to narrow down the number to the ones I really want. I suspect many people do just that.

One more thing - look out for Sebastien Bachollet's gTLD Evaluation Report to ICANN this autumn. It could make interesting reading. And keep watching ICANN because they seem to have accepted that they can no longer dam the process, and their developing process for new gTLDs seems to allow for as many applicants as can match their technical criteria.

Richard H

 

[David G]

The proliferation of gTLDs is another factor to be considered. So far ICANN have been (in my opinion) deliberately slow about expanding the namespace, but they have now adopted a process which must inevitably lead to a criteria-based expansion, rather than just *selecting* a few TLDs like .info and .biz

Within 3 or 4 years there will probably be another 20 gTLDs (simply because that many applicants will meet ICANN's criteria) and that should mean that there are *vastly* more generic word domain names available for registration, which in turn should mean a collapse in value for most domains (except perhaps the archetypal .com which is less easy to predict).

People have been saying that .info and .biz may pick up in value as user-recognition increases. I would say that will be more than offset by the arrival of this wave of new gTLDs which will enter the market in the next few years (I'm not referring to the little bunch os sTLDs going through selection at ICANN right now).

I sold History.info for $5000 in June. I had too many other domains to develop so I decided to let that one go. A pretty good generic name, well-suited for a .info suffix... but still only $5000. I think the .info names will go down in value by 2008.

The area of uncertainty (for me) is .com

This mammoth has continued to take centre-stage. The questions I ask are these:

When the tide of new gTLDs starts arriving in 2006/2007/2008, will .com become even more desirable as the only readily recognised ending, in the face of ever more confusing alternatives? In which case, whoever's held on to the decent names will be sitting on highly valued cyber realty?

Or... will the ever-increasing number of gTLDs result in greater public dependence on Search Engines, and a decline in the relevance of *any* endings?

I personally think .com is secure for the short-term future at least.

Finally, I can't help wondering when ENUM will dig in, and to what extent that will have a good or bad effect on domain name values. As different media and technologies get integrated, will your domain name cease being simply a web-address or e-mail address, and will it instead become your much easier to memorise phone number or general identity. It amazes me that we still use long strings of numbers for our phones (well, most of us) when domain names would be far more intuitive and easier for friends to remember. I can't remember any of my 4 brothers phone numbers, but I know all their e-mail addresses because words are far easier to recall than lists of numbers (which is all the words are in fact).

In my fantasy dreams, I wake up one morning to hear that technology has 'adopted' the domain name system in a much more far-reaching set of functions, and my domain names now point not only to my website but my phone, my bank, my credit-card, my TV channels and my home address... and the newscaster (in this dream) says: "Some people have registered dozens of domains and suddenly find that they are worth thousands of dollars/pounds" and I think, I'm glad I never sold them, now I am richer than I ever imagined and my wife will stop killing me for the money I've spent on domains..."

"There you are, honey - I told you I knew what I was doing!" I will say...

Well, unless this kind of technological expansion of the functions of the DNS gets going, I think many domain values will drop over the next 4 years, as the supply outstrips the demand...

So these days I just buy domains if I want to actually use them. I keep selling off some of my list, just to narrow down the number to the ones I really want. I suspect many people do just that.

One more thing - look out for Sebastien Bachollet's gTLD Evaluation Report to ICANN this autumn. It could make interesting reading. And keep watching ICANN because they seem to have accepted that they can no longer dam the process, and their developing process for new gTLDs seems to allow for as many applicants as can match their technical criteria. Richard H

Thanks Richard, excellent post, you obviously have lots of good knowledge on these issues. BTW, my wife is also very angry over money spent on domains, I hear about it all the time.

Regarding new gTLDs. If in fact we get lots of new ones approved do you think dot-web by IOD will be included? If so, do you think it could even rival com as some domainers believe?

Also, I think you are right about many tld's dropping in value if lots of new tld's are approved but that may not happen on targeted and niche extensions such as dot-org due to its non-commercialized connotation, and dot-us as there can only be one US country code, and of course com is too well established and far and away #1, especially for large businesses.

IMO, extensions such as dot-biz may drop in value significantly if say 20 new tld's are approved due to heavy domain space dilution.

 

[chatcher]

The proliferation of gTLDs is another factor to be considered.

What about the proliferation of Internet users?

Within 3 or 4 years there will probably be another 20 gTLDs

And a few billion more users.

People have been saying that .info and .biz may pick up in value as user-recognition increases.

I think we're already seeing that, but of course not on the scale of .com. The really good .info's are selling at some modest fraction of .com. The poor .info names will never be worth anything, because rather than accept a poor name, most buyers would take a look at other extensions (which is what brought them to .info or .biz in the first place).

I sold History.info for $5000 in June.

A very nice name, and worth the money. I don't think it will lose that value any time soon. From a profit standpoint, you probably did well, and it's quite possible there are currently better places to invest $5000 than sitting on history.info. On the other hand, the buyer may do very well with that name.

The area of uncertainty (for me) is .com

... will .com become even more desirable as the only readily recognised ending, in the face of ever more confusing alternatives...

I think the premium .com names will always be at the top of the list. I think the .com names that should obviously never have been registered will never have any value.

Well, unless this kind of technological expansion of the functions of the DNS gets going, I think many domain values will drop over the next 4 years, as the supply outstrips the demand...

In my opinion, the demand is growing faster than the supply. The early (first?) .com bubble had at its foundation the correct notion that the Internet was growing at a fantastic pace, and that it's future potential would be mind-boggling. That part was and is correct (but of course it didn't justify the loony business plans). We are still in the very early stages of this era. I can't believe how many business still can't justify paying the price for a premium domain name, considering the difference it will make to their bottom line in the future.

As for the drops being boring, let's just say I understand times have changed, and so has my strategy. I am no longer chasing "premium" names. There are still a few niches that are exciting at drop time, and I haven't been bored lately!

 

[mole]

IMO, extensions such as dot-biz may drop in value significantly if say 20 new tld's are approved due to heavy domain space dilution.

That is the ICANN plan, to ensure every dog, chicken and grasshopper on this planet gets their own internet address at reg fee.

Domain name values have been dropping since 2000 and continue to drop to even lower levels, including .COM as new gTLD alternatives dilute the meaning and expand the options in web addressing. For .COM, the only good thing is that sales are at least at "decent levels" and not at the $100 low-ball levels commonly thrown at new namespace.

I have always questioned the dope-induced tricks some play to parlay the perception that some "generic/brandless" .COMs are worth hundreds of thousand of dollars, millions even. Finance 101 will show you how easily such stunts can be pulled with all due full its-in-the-books "credibility".

Let's continue, for sanity sake, to base domain value on the traffic it can generate - based on a PPC earning ratios. I continue to be amazed at .COM names at Sedo asking for four figures but having only 3 "page views" a month.

 

[Martin23]

Mole you do tell some crap!

.com prices have not droped due to new gtld's, Everyones buying .info and .biz now but they have 1 million regs each and in the time they have been released 6 million .coms have been regged, so that adds up. Sales this year have been very high apart from the .com boom.

You make me laugh

 

[Theo]

My ex wife would be furious if she knew how much I made from domains since she decided to call it quits