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The rise of the brick-and-mortar

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mole

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Now, this is one of the few things I agree with the Domain King.


Simone asks

Dear Rick,

I came across this excellent post you made just over a year ago regarding the future of main stream businesses online.

I would just like to ask if you still feel the same way today a year later. Is the outlook for main stream businesses ( like I am trying to develop ) better now, the same, or worse ?

Thanks,

Simone Gallard

Text follows ----

Morning folks! Get ready for a dose of reality......

They just don't get it folks....and there are indications that they may not get it for another generation of collapse. I am the optimist.....the eternal optimist......but the storm in front of us is real and it is gonna be real bad.

It's numbers. The future revolves around numbers. We are not in control of those numbers and where we once attacked the windmill like Don Quixote, we have been tossed from that windmill.

The evidence of the future of mainstream net is POOR at best. There are so many elements leading to disaster I can hardly count them without giving up half way thru.

1. They don't take a visitor seriously
2. They don't have any concept that a visitor on your website may in FACT not only be as good as the guy walking in the front door but actually even better.

3. Given the 2 things above they are not working on their "Mousetrap" to close more sales. They don't believe there are that many sales there to begin with.

4. Add to that the fact that last year for example there were only 3 jewelry programs on the net. Now there are several dozen and next year there will be several hundred.

4a. Of those jewelry stores ONE may emerge as a real capable website.
4b. Maybe not
4c. Maybe customer would be more apt to buy from a brand they know. Zales.com, Tiffany.com, Cartier.com, Mayors.com, etc. etc. etc.
4d. Unless they are GIVING stuff at HUGE savings......why would they TRUST a dotcom that could go bye bye tomorrow?
4e. Plus he has to beat out the other 100 dotcom jewelers

5. So after they get thru all those obstacles they still have to make the sale. They still have to figure out a profitable formula. they still have to brand themselves. They still have to pay for traffic. They still have to have a webmaster program.

6. Then they have to turn a profit.

7. Then they have to realize of 1 million or more retail stores that opened on the net, Amazon.com is the great success story and they have not figured out #6.

8. Now this is just the TIP of the iceberg. THE TIP!!!!


You can't build skyscrapers if you have no ELEVATOR!!

Imagine if they built only one GAS STATION????????????????????????????????????

Nope, they put one on EVERY corner......LIKE LEMONADE STANDS!!!!!!!

Run by a HANDFUL of people.

The universe is now run by MORONS.......While I see great OPPORTUNITY for the net........that OPPORTUNITY is about to be seized by the REAL world. But even they will take YEARS and YEARS before they get to where adult was in 1997!

I am coming to the realization just what a MAJOR shift the net is going thru. I think there are 1000 failures to every success story. If you take adult out of the equation, success stories as "I" would define "Success" is almost non existent. And success to ME does not mean churning money it means taking the profit and sticking it in your pocket.

9. the dotcomers that led to the collapse will now go to work for real world companies and bring their EXPERTISE of the net to those companies. I call that the "Blind leading the blind"

10. That will lead to mixed results and a possible second collapse along with other factors that GUARANTEE a second collapse.

11. Add to that that Asia will blow us all away down the road. History of electronics is SURE to repeat itself on the net.



The point is I have barely scratched the surface of all the indicators that point to a bad result. Knowing this however gives one the opportunity to navigate around the collapse and come out okay.

There will be some avenues that produce windfalls. Online education for one. I see this as a HUGE growth area. But most areas will go BUST.

I see a LOT of black clouds on the horizon and it will wash most of the net as we know it away. More websites will be abandoned this year than ever before and next year it will be much worse.

Almost EVERY dotcom player coming in without a real world presence will go bust. Damn, I could write this all day it is sooooooooooooooo bad and about to get soooooooooooooooooooo much worse.

Have a GREAT day!! :))

Domain King
Sat May 5 07:33:18 2001 - 208.63.238.157 - message #284


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Reply for Rick

Yes, not much has changed other than Pay per click search engines are now king and THAT is a step in the right direction.

Mainstream is MUCH smaller today than a year ago. The PURE dotcom play is all but dead. The real world companies now dominate the net.

Domain Kng
Sun May 19 17:42:04 2002 - 65.185.104.173 - message #965
 
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