How will gTLD performance affect the latecomers?

[manyagem]

So, there have been a fair number of releases so far, many of them to early bird registries like donuts.

Suppose you're a small registry looking to launch further down the track with an extension that's unlikely to set the world on fire. Would you be feeling nervous by now? What do you have to lose, apart from credibility, $185,000 and any work you've put in so far to promote your offerings (very little)? How many will be tempted to pull out before they throw good money after bad?

Those in it for the long haul might just be thinking that when the market is flooded with new keywords, when domainers are not the main target audience and end users have got used to the idea that .com is not the only party in town, they may just have a chance to get their money back.

I wouldn't bank on it, would you?

 

[NameYourself]

Interesting perspective. Has anyone done the math yet to see which extensions have turned a profit for their registries? I suppose Theo would have some good educated guesses on this. Given the length of time and significant investments some may pull out. .GURU looks profitable.. but some of these other ones.. well many of them actually have just a few thousand registered..and are open season now.. that can't add up to much.

 

[katherine]

You can be certain that there will be registry failures, some sudden and unexpected.
The registries must commit to 3 years of continuity or something like that. In Internet time 3 years is nothing.
You are perfectly right, some extensions will underperform, therefore the registries will want to trim their portfolios at some point. Whomever picked the wrong TLD for development foots the bill.

And if you think they are taking a huge chance, then yes they are. But I suppose it's with OPM (other people's money = the money of "investors").
No kidding, the supply vs demand ratio is disproportionate.

The business plans of registries have always been wildly optimistic (dig the icann website for the TLD proposals from the last decade, very entertaining stuff).
For example, .club operators think they will have 1M registrations in one year: http://www.domainsherpa.com/campbell-sass-dotclub-interview/.
They should stop smoking.

 

[NameYourself]

You are perfectly right, some extensions will underperform, therefore the registries will want to trim their portfolios at some point. Whomever picked the wrong TLD for development foots the bill.

WOW, this is very important and something many people have probably not considered. If say after 3 years Donuts decides to discontinue all the tlds that DONT make them money, what will become of all the links and development value everyone has built upon their domains.. do they just stop working? Have these things been considered at all? This is EXTREMELY important, are there rules in place for what happens beyond those 3 years? The value of many established websites is in their links, branding, web presence.. if the entire extension and all the websites built upon it is suddenly closed for business who is there to protect the companies, organizations, and individuals who bought those domains and then poured millions into development and advertising? ICANN? Does ICANN care to plan for these types of things? Based on the numbers, registries WILL be faced with this situation, its just a matter of when.

 

[manyagem]

Look on the bright side. Some extensions could carry on regardless - once they're in the name pool - but gain rarity value. A modern day philately game.

 

[katherine]

But the supply is infinite while demand is small... but many domainers are in fact domain collectors

 

[Theo]

There is always something that 'appeals' to someone, but there is always the risk of failure. It depends on the business model of the registrars and their ability to turn profitable. For example, .Berlin is free for all Berlin registrants for the first year, but the cost is subsidized by the local government.

 

[manyagem]

I didn't know that about .berlin being locally subsidized. Rather pleased now I withdrew from registering streetmap.berlin @ $59. Someone else has taken it now.

 

[DomainScoop.Com]

I didn't know that about .berlin being locally subsidized. Rather pleased now I withdrew from registering streetmap.berlin @ $59. Someone else has taken it now.

You just saved good ole 59 $

 

[katherine]

Some geoTLDs could do OK, especially if:
a. they relate to cities/regions with a strong identity
b. they are economically viable (read: subsidized with taxpayers' money)

But when I was in Barcelona (Catalunya), I noticed .cat is used much less than .es and .com. Often by institutional websites.
And I am talking about a region that is seriously looking to break away from Spain.

 

[MobileDesigner]

.jp domains are very strong in Japan. their only other domain that they use was co.jp but back in the day, to register a co.jp, one would need to form a corporation and pay the $5,000 fee for registering their company. the geos basically went to city and governments and thereafter the leftover .jp domains went to small startups and companies.

.nagoya will be launched around June. .Tokyo will be launched later this year. these will definitely be wonderful geos. Theres a big campaign going on: http://www.onamae.jp/newgtld/nagoya/ske48/?btn_id=btn_id=02_nagoya_20140319_tvcm_ske48campaignlp I'm gonna get a bunch of these!

 

[Gerry]

.nagoya will be launched around June. .Tokyo will be launched later this year. these will definitely be wonderful geos. Theres a big campaign going on: http://www.onamae.jp/newgtld/nagoya/ske48/?btn_id=btn_id=02_nagoya_20140319_tvcm_ske48campaignlp I'm gonna get a bunch of these!

I personally see nothing but success for these geo's. For the most part, the geo extensions will be successful (.tokyo, .berlin, .osaka) because of the incredible loyalty to the country urls (.de, .jp). Plus, many of these registries are only opening up pre-regs to companies and addresses in those municipalities.

I do, however, believe that many will fall in to obscurity. And many will be nothing more than a vanity license plate.

 

[MobileDesigner]

I totally agree with you on the geos domains. But there could be some benefits to the other new gtld names if regged wisely

 

[elevatoria]

The new tlds case could be like that of .mobile and mention all those far lesser extensions. But for them to completely fail may not possible. All I know is that they can not come close to .com and those high profile extension. However, .guru can go beyound expectation because everybody on intenet want to be called gurus.
My personal view is that domainers should be carefull to invest all their wealth on new gtlds

 

[manyagem]

Some geoTLDs could do OK, especially if:
a. they relate to cities/regions with a strong identity
b. they are economically viable (read: subsidized with taxpayers' money)

But when I was in Barcelona (Catalunya), I noticed .cat is used much less than .es and .com. Often by institutional websites.
And I am talking about a region that is seriously looking to break away from Spain.

Watch out for this when Scotland votes on independence in September. It could go either way. If there's a yes vote, .scot could be a winner and others like .cat will be waiting in the wings. If it's a no, don't bother.