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Do gTLD numbers lie?

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Good point(s).

FortyK dot gurus tells me that domineers make up 98% of the earlier adopters...which can seriously skew numbers.

In a "good" scenario, it will take at least a year for the gTLD's phenom to catch the eye of the end user.

Meanwhile, I am happy to report that some of my new, early registrations are getting traffic. Yet, could that traffic be from domainers looking?
 
The figures still tell a lot. But you have to look at them long term.
It's not just about the figures but the patterns. Also, the extent of development is something more difficult to measure, but more meaningful than the sheer numbers of registrations.

When some tlds are stagnating and even shrinking - that can't be a good sign. Unless the shrinkage is offset by a higher concentration of developed names, but that doesn't happen either.
 
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