i dont think even 1% is realistic, there are many factors that you are not considering here.
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1:100..I wish.....probably more like 1:10.000 probably even worse. So if you want to put it in mathematical terms, here is how to figure it out: 2.5k now = playing it safe..taking the other way = 1k later + the chance of getting 25k at 0.01% = $2.5 = 1002.5, thats the value of the other way..and that does not even factor in the time value of money at your cost of capital, which is rather high in the domain world.
hey, thanks for sharing your insight and analysis. Have to appreciate the wisdom of someone who actually puts their money where there mouth is on a regular basis !
And as they say - no one ever went broke taking profits (while plenty get clobbered just paying reg fees!).
still wondering about 10000 to 1 odds against widgets.biz going for $25k to end user though.
Sounds reasonable enough looking strictly at numbers - ie, out of 100,000,000 registered domain names, are there even 10,000 (that is, 0.01%) that have sold for over $25K?
Yet widgets.biz still works IMO maybe even better than potential competition such as widgets.net, etc. (Sure, no love for .biz in general, but any good reason why widgets.biz couldn't buck that trend?)
Seems to me not such long odds that it could be leveraged to add serious weight (> $25k) to the bottom line of a well-positioned end user looking for easy mind share boost in the next year or 2 or 3 ... (Considering the $$$$$$ regularly spent in TV and print ad campaigns, just $25K for widgets.biz might be cheap.)
And hey - I'll put my money where my mouth is too, if anyone wants to give 10000:1 odds against widgets.biz going for $25K in the next 3 years ... I got $1 DNF right here saying it just might!
Seriously though, thanks for explaining details of your analysis.