COLLAPSE OF the MOBI & IDN MARKETS -- the aftermath

[Gerry]

You should re-read what Steve wrote and look more closely at the second half of the sentence you quoted:

Well, guess what.

Clearly people did not want the internet as they know it or they would have revolted and sales of smartphones would not be skyrocketing.

And you really should study the market and trends as they are (have been) going on around the world, as in outside the US.

Clearly, people DO NOT want the internet as they know it.

Plus, lets face it...the internet as we know it is about to become an internet as you DON'T KNOW IT with the release of IDN's.

Yup, and mobi is going IDN.

This thread is a replay of the same old debate

You're right.

In spite of all the naysaying, .mobi is still here and did not die.

In spite of my support, .mobi is and will do fine without me.

It is even possible that we will be able to efficiently use full websites on smartphones without having to settle for ugly mobile versions of those sites in the future.

Thats called a laptop or netbook or umpc.

Or you can wait for the rollout screen and folding screen technology to come into vogue.

Again, all of that is technology that comes after the demand. The mobile internet happened so fast and with such varocity on a global scale that no one was prepared for for the demand.

M-commerce was in the news well before .mobi was even released.
No mention of .mobi in the article, as usual.

I'll give you that one.

As for no mention of .mobi, well, BusinessWeek readers know that they can go to BusinessWeek.mobi for their news.

I guess they were into m-commerce before .mobi.

But they use .mobi for their m-commerce.

Now, who do they think they are!

 

[mattbodis]

End of the day, everyone has and is entitled to their own opinions.

Give it a few years and we'll see where .mobi goes. My guess once again is that everything will come to 1. And I believe that 1 is .com, at least for the time being.

History tells us this. We are now heading towards 1 government, 1 currency. Everything unites at one point or another. It is really a pattern. I think most people will realize there is no point in securing same name under 20 TLDs. It will all be as part of 1, the .com. And this is going to go a lot faster once the new vanity TLDs are live. It'll become almost crazy, there'll be literally hundreds or thousands of TLDs, people will just start saying screw it, I'm sticking to .com and only .com from now on.

It is the most recognized TLD. And the TLD that can be used globally. We are also now in a world of global interaction and networking. Everyone will want to have their site and business global.

Also, I'd like to mention that a lot of people, especially in this thread don't even know the facts and yet they argue. Not you, but one guy did post saying that mobile sites can only be created for .mobi extension. Obviously this is completely false. The TLD has no impact on the content of the site. And there are two ways of serving both mobile and non-mobile content from the same site. One of them is by simple using stylesheet set for mobile browsers, and the other is by serving altered content using server-side programming.

Now, I think also that dodo1 is correct. Most mobile phones will soon have same resolution as your laptop. We are already seeing that. I'd say in 5 years, there won't be anyone creating mobile specific sites anymore. It'll be same as a regular site. And if that is true, then .mobi won't be needed since people will be heading to the normal .com version of the site.

 

[Gerry]

I'd say in 5 years, there won't be anyone creating mobile specific sites anymore. It'll be same as a regular site. And if that is true, then .mobi won't be needed since people will be heading to the normal .com version of the site.

It is difficult to make that assumption. Of course, we have to look forward.

IDN is going to totally change the internet forever. There will be less and less usage of .com. Simply langauge and script will be the defacto for many. We are all already seeing more and more ccTLD's getting a larger and larger portion of the traffic once regulated to .com. Is it possible that the .com will become a redirect to these TLD's? I think so.

Add into that mess the new generic TLD's. Not only are we looking at new scripts, languages, and ccTLD's, we are looking at the potential of the brand becoming the extension and the extension is the brand.

None of this is conjecture or speculation. It is here and it is about to unfold right before our eyes. Once you see more and more brands going into the fracas and becoming the extension, you will see an internet unlike anything any of us have experienced. And, this WILL force about a different way to connect. Again, the demand and usage is happening before the technology (all those wonderful scenarios we've all discussed) are in place. Be it new phones, new chipsets...whatever. Here we have the telecomms and everyone being forced to change and adapt to the consumer's usage and demands. When will someone be able to type as effortlessly in Chinese script and have it appear as such on their screen yet I see it in english in real time. The browsers for PC's and Laptops are still behind in this capability yet the internet is going full steam ahead with IDN. Mindboggling.

So, what one way and what one method is going to tell every one in the world that this site is mobile? How are proponents of the M DOT thing going to convince all authors, programmers, webdesigners to us the m when the latin letter m is not even part of their script? With all the IDN's added to the current 260+ extensions and the new proposed tld's down the pipe, name one globally accepted and universally recognized and used method of identifying a site as Mobile? And now!

Imagine the massive, massive confusion of keeping up and know all the new extensions and trying to figure out who is what and how to connect to who.

Seriously, think for a minute. Not only are we talking about new technology that is not here yet, we have not even mentioned the fact of assuming people are going to suddenly trade in or upgrade their devices they currently have. Time and money are huge factors not even mentioned.

I am passionate about the viability and the usability of .mobi now because when all is said and done, there is a way RIGHT NOW to make a site that works on all devices in use RIGHT NOW across the planet. I am equally passionate of .com, .net, .org and a couple of others. I am also a realist to recognize the changes in the way people connect to the internet, I study consumer and marketing trends. If anything, .mobi is under utilized.

That is why .mobi is going no where and you will see a wider, broader use of it NOW.

Honestly, how many more arguments have there been and are there going to be to either announce the death of mobi or mobi is not needed?

Just like all the proposed brands becoming the extension, .mobi is the brand and the brand is the extension - mobile, mobility, and mobilization of the internet.

Amen, brothers and sisters.

What's up next on the pulpit?

 

[dn-101]

ShytKicker, I'd like to refute some of your assumptions.
.com is not king in many places. Par example, in China .cn reigns supreme. In Russia it's dot-ru.
Even their biggest search engine, yandex, doesn't own .com extension.
And our German friends are in love with .de. Well, this waay better than many other things they fell in love with, say, lampshades from human skin.
:smilewinkgrin:

 

[mattbodis]

Well it definitely is not going to start with China or Russia, more because of political reasons.

But, nonetheless, you'll have most companies and individuals wanting to go global sooner or later. That TLD known for being global is .com. You have more people securing .com when they own the ccTLD, than the reverse of having someone that owns .com secure 200+ ccTLDs.

I don't buy Doc Com's argument. First off, no longer understand everything Doc is pointing out, but I can assure you that new TLDs are not any "internet unlike anything any of us have experienced". It's just a different extension. It won't pick up. If some major ccTLDs and even TLDs haven't become popular, how can you expect extremely pricey vanity TLDs to become popular? Plus, it would have to offer a new means of connecting to information. This is NOTHING MORE than a different extension that the general public knows almost nothing about.

I don't see it to be honest. Sooner or later the industry is going to start running out of money for all these junk TLDs and domains, and wake up and start investing only in what is actually worth, not what is worth based on speculation.

All these mobis are trading hands mostly in people that speculate, even non-domainers - still speculating. All speculation comes to an end eventually. The industry does not have trillions of dollars to keep speculating forever.

Just wait and see. By the next financial crisis in a few years (the real one), everyone will stop investing in speculative junk.

This is like the trading cards from the 90s. It's very similar. Completely inflated prices. If you are saying some of these .mobis are worth as much as they sold for when they were initially auctioned, then there is a big disconnect between what we are seeing and thinking. And I have made posts back then that it's worth not as much as it's going for and people were quick to point out that I was so wrong. If you want, I can find you those posts.

 

[AndreiPolgar.com]

To sum it all up:

 

[Gerry]

could use a break from the bold bright graphics that are not really adding to the thread.

 

[AndreiPolgar.com]

could use a break from the bold bright graphics that are not really adding to the thread.

Kind sir, I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

[hugegrowth]

I refuse to debate .mobi anymore.

 

[bwhhisc]

Currently that 'portfolio' is sitting in John B's IOLLA account, shielding the Russian mafia connection.

LOL. The buyer and seller of Moscow.com (Russian IDN) are both reputable people and members on this board, as well as others. There are many more logical reasons the domain is in escrow than hiding it from the Russian mafia!! Geez, when did they get into domaining....and surely one would think they prefer .ru :lol:

 

[dn-101]

And now let's hear from the mobi shyster - on the same topic - fvcking the poor Arab prince :smilewinkgrin:

 

[Fearless]

The iphone mortally wounded mobee. When they start giving away iphones if you sign up for a 2 year service, mobee will officially be comatose.

 

[seanboy]

That is their lose. And their ignorance.

So you're saying the people that actually understand mobile technology better than anyone on this forum are ignorant? You're kidding right?

Mobile application developers
Smartphone developers
Mobile web developers....

..and others that have brought you every innovation in the mobile field in the past 10 years are ignorant, because they realize that there is no technical need for an alternative extension to serve mobile formatted content?

The factis that user agent detection is becoming the most popular and sensible way to serve mobile content. The fact is that almost every smartphone released in the past 3 years (you know, the phones that people actually use to browse the web), come equipped with a browser that supports the full HTML language, and not just WAP. The fact is that XHTML-MP (The language behind WAP, which is the technology behind .mobi), is dead, along with XTHML. The W3C has ceased work on it, and preparations are made for HTML 5, which in time will become the default language for all websites, mobile and desktop. The fact is that you can serve both your full and mobile website from one domain, without the use of a subdomain (m.) or an alternative extension (.mobi).

The real innovation in the mobile web is the browser, not some company pretending to be a web standards committee.

I try to stay out of these threads, but I take high offense to such a statement.

But as a developer, what do I know...

 

[Gerry]

So you're saying the people that actually understand mobile technology better than anyone on this forum are ignorant? You're kidding right?

Now consider this: .mobi is dissed by professional developers and guess what, they won't prescribe .mobi for their clients.

That is their lose. And their ignorance.

They are doing their clients a huge dis-service by not presenting to them the options.

It helps to take the entire post into context.

The factis that user agent detection is becoming the most popular and sensible way to serve mobile content. The fact is that almost every smartphone released in the past 3 years (you know, the phones that people actually use to browse the web), come equipped with a browser that supports the full HTML language, and not just WAP. The fact is that XHTML-MP (The language behind WAP, which is the technology behind .mobi), is dead, along with XTHML. The W3C has ceased work on it, and preparations are made for HTML 5, which in time will become the default language for all websites, mobile and desktop. The fact is that you can serve both your full and mobile website from one domain, without the use of a subdomain (m.) or an alternative extension (.mobi).

The real innovation in the mobile web is the browser, not some company pretending to be a web standards committee.

I try to stay out of these threads, but I take high offense to such a statement.

But as a developer, what do I know...

And this happens when?

And everyone gets a free upgraded phone to replace the current phones?

So, the current 4.5 billion phones in use today can do all the above, right now?

 

[seanboy]

It helps to take the entire post into context.

And this happens when?

Its happening now, and has been for the past 3 years...

And everyone gets a free upgraded phone to replace the current phones?

Don't be silly. But then again, technology is constantly evolving. Did you respond to this message on a PC or a Commodore 64?

So, the current 4.5 billion phones in use today can do all the above, right now?

No, but the ones that people actually use for browsing the web can.

Again, what everything I stated was a fact. But since I'm an ignorant developer, of course I don't know what I'm talking about.

If you want to keep believe that .mobi is some kind of technical solution to a problem that really isn't a problem (and it isn't), then go ahead.

I'm not trying to bash the extension, I am only attempting to shed light on the many misconceptions about all of this that I see here and other places. I'm so sick of people referring to .mobi as if its some sort of web standard. Mtld is a company whose #1 goal is to sell domains. They are not W3C.

I have a mid-term in two hours, so I'll have to argue with you later. Congrats on the dog thing. I never got a chance to tell you that since you never respond to your emails.

 

[Gerry]

Its happening now, and has been for the past 3 years...

Don't be absurd. But then again, technology is constantly evolving. Did you respond to this message on a PC or a Commodore 64?

No. My remington typewriter.

If you want to keep believe that .mobi is some kind of technical solution to a problem that really isn't a problem (and it isn't), then go ahead.

Until everyone, every site, every person, every phone, every programmer, every developer, every agency, every PR person, every browser, every device, every ad agency is on board with this and doing every thing in the same manner...until everyone is doing the same thing identical in scope and practice then there are going to be massive huge gaps on usability and appeal.

It is not a technical solution. It is a common sense solution.

Again, it does not matter if the capability is here and in place or this browser will be capable for doing this and that. What matters is what options the consumer have at this very moment. This whole notion of mobility and mobile sites and wireless connectivity happened faster than anyone anticipated.

The demand and usage was in place BEFORE all the new bells and whistles were in place that you describe. It is now a matter of technology meeting those demands. Marketers, phone makers, programmers, chip makers, were in a rush to get product to the market (as is always the case).

Until all programmers, developers, PR and ad people, marketers, website owners, cell phone makers all agree on the same way to access something there will be as many recommendations on how to access the mobile internet as there are stars in the sky. It is fine to preach to me the abilities and capabilities. Put those abilities in use. Put those capabilities in use. Get every one on the same page designing, building, coding sites. Right now! We can talk about what is going to happen with the adoption of new standards. How does that help the billions with a cell phone in their hand right at this very moment.

But until those abilities and capabilities are adopted en masse, nothing is going to be standardized. Nothing is going to be agreed upon. Developers and programmers will still have their personal likes and dislikes. Website developers will still have their own little quirks about doing things. Designer URL's and envogue ways will still be the fad.

And for every one who says you could make this and that site mobile without .mobi, mobi is not needed to make a site mobile...I say then why has this already not been done? everyone seems to want to talk about something after the fact (release of .mobi). Why is there a discussion about what could have and should have been done to make a site mobile? Why didn't all these people just go ahead and use all this knowledge and expertise to do it?

.mobi is a brand. .mobi is an extension. .mobi indicates mobile

What in the hell is every one going to say when all these new extensions are released? Same old thing and same old arguments.

we don't need .ebay. Ebay is not a technology. You can still get to .ebay with a .com.


.ebay will be a brand. .ebay will be an extension. .ebay indiates ebay

It's that evolution process you mentioned...upgrading my remington typewriter to a new fangled electric model.

 

[seanboy]

Until everyone, every site, every person, every phone, every programmer, every developer, every agency, every PR person, every browser, every device, every ad agency is on board with this and doing every thing in the same manner...until everyone is doing the same thing identical in scope and practice then there are going to be massive huge gaps on usability and appeal.

It is not a technical solution. It is a common sense solution.

It is NOT a common sense solution. Spending the extra cash to create a mobile site that can be done on the domain you already own is in no way common sense. Its more of a case of falling victim to clever marketing.

There is one thing that hardly any of those people you mentioned are on board with, and that's .mobi. The only people that are even discussing .mobi are people invested in it, and mtld. I'm not sure if you're keep up with current events, but there's alot going on in the mobile space. So much has happened, and the mobile web has evolved so much in the past few years, and all of that has happened has hardly anything to do with .mobi.

And speaking of the browser, AT&T recently announced plans to add full HTML browsers as the default browsers on non-smartphones. Why?:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-10368043-266.html?tag=mncol

"Mobile Internet services are the future of the wireless industry. But until recently, the mobile Web browsing experience has not been pleasant using WAP (wireless application protocol) browsers that only provide stripped down versions of mobile Web sites.

Smartphones, such as the iPhone, have changed the mobile Web surfing experience. The iPhone comes with a full HTML browser built in and users access actual Web pages that look and feel like the Web pages they use on their PCs.

Consumers like the more robust Web experience of a smartphone, which is driving smartphone sales through the roof.."

As I stated before, and as this news proves, the real innovation in the mobile web space is in the BROWSER.

Again, these are facts. You can speculate all day on this forum about what .mobi can do and the problems that it supposedly solves, but its just speculation.

The upcoming extensions (.ebay, lol) is another argument for another time. I've gotta go take my midterm now. I'll respond later tonight..

 

[Gerry]

I've gotta go take my midterm now.

mine are later.

 

[Domainate.com]

Well, guess what.

Clearly people did not want the internet as they know it or they would have revolted and sales of smartphones would not be skyrocketing.

Ok, now you're getting silly. That's like saying clearly people do not want computers with 32 GB RAM or they would be revolting and sales of computers with less RAM would not be high. And hey, people don't want flying cars because otherwise sales of non-flying cars would be plummeting (if we can believe The 5th Element, we only have a couple hundred more years to wait for the flying cars...and McDonalds will have served 1 trillion people). Of course people want smartphones. They make previous phones seem like paperweights - previous phones which mostly by the way could only view WAP sites. So yea, people are flocking to buy phones with a more illustrious internet experience that's more similar to their home internet experience. Thanks for proving my point - I appreciate it!

But in case that doesn't get it across, I guess you don't think Iphone commercials like this one helped to sell the Iphone? As much as I hate Apple, they have known what people want more than most companies in existence...but what, they're clueless in making such a commercial, is that it? You don't think they did research and found that to be a major point people gave as to what they want on their mobile device - an internet experience as much like their home internet experience?

Again, I ask you - do you believe .mobi is a solid longterm investment? I'll even give you a relatively short period of only 3 years as definition of longterm...it's already been OUT for 3 years and the dollar amounts of their sales are down from the sales at the beginning - so do you think 3 years from now that trend will continue or do you think the mainstream world will have caught on enough for it to have improved?

I don't HATE .mobi, I don't have a vendetta against .mobi, and I even own a .mobi, Who.mobi. I just don't think it's a solid longterm investment and that again, the clock is ticking if not time already run out on the extension having a chance to catch hold.

 

[katherine]

I don't HATE .mobi, I don't have a vendetta against .mobi, and I even own a .mobi, Who.mobi. I just don't think it's a solid longterm investment and that again, the clock is ticking if not time already run out on the extension having a chance to catch hold.

Concur. It was already obsolete upon release.
It's more speculation than a long term investment IMHO - there is a nuance
But well I am a just another clueless developer stuck with W3C-compliant design.