.Com - The Harsh Reality

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Dec 6, 2019
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#1
Most people make decisions on emotion, not fact...it's especially evident in domaining. They impose their 'feelings' on you, misguiding you. They often recommend newbies stick to .com. But those pesky facts...

.com AVERAGE sale value (per namebio.com)

All-time: $2,367
Past 5 yrs: $1,375
Past 12 mo: $1,044
Only 2020: $881
Past month: $822
Past week: $628

I'm seeing a trend. While your idols pronounce nTLD 'dead'. I like to know...do they have no shame? I'm calling them hypocrites at best. And out-right selfish liars at worst.
 
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Dec 6, 2019
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#2
Also prudent to consider the volume. One might argue there is a higher volume of lower sales which skews the data.

Last week = 102,492
Last month = 107,892
Last year = 97,000
Last 2 yrs = 87,250
Last 3 yrs = 80,889
Last 5 yrs = 76,480

"All-time" won't be very telling because data goes back 20+ years. Some of the earliest years only have a handful of domains listed.

So the volume of sales has been on a steady increase. Let's look at the extremes:

VOLUME
107,892 recorded sales last month.
76,480 recorded sales last 5 yrs.
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~41% increase.

VALUE
$822 Last month
$1,375 Past 5 yrs.
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~40% decrease.

I don't feel like explaining ALL the implications. It's not cut-and-dry. I do suggest much of the increasing volume is due to aftermarket platform domainer-to-domainer sales (as promoted by all the 'pro' domainers). It's fair to assume most of those sales are in the low xxx. It does skew the perception of 'value average'.

I feel there has been a domainer aftermarket boom during the last 5 years. Without the domainer aftermarket sales, the volume would actually be FALLING.

It's fine to be a domainer with stagnant prices. The profits don't necessarily come from a rising price, as a stock would. You can buy high and sell low on a case-by-case basis and the big picture doesn't mean anything. If you think .com is 'growing' in value and end-user adoption though, I do insist you are wrong.

In other words, aside from value, the amount of end-user sales is perhaps more important for 'keen' domainers. Again, it's important to ask yourself, how many sales are end-user sales vs. domainer sales. You could have a 'false sense'.

With the ccTLD and nTLD headwinds, I do expect this volume to fall too, fast - starting now. All that's left is to wait and see. 1-2 years will yield the evidence. Face it, when the end-users dry up, so does the artificial liquidity, this volume, which aftermarket domainers provide. Don't recommend holding the bag.
 
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Dec 6, 2019
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#3
The .com era, I do say, is dying. It's hard to come up with perfect comparisons.

I do think this will fall more - it'll be a pronounced 'lull' to be sure...the entire historical trend will be broken. However, when it rises again, I think the perception of .com vs ccTLD and nTLD will be totally different. When this rebounds, it will largely represent a rise in websites built on TLDs -other- than .com.

It's a self-feeding effect too. As more 'new' TLDs come online, they will be evermore justified as a legitimate, even trendy (also, permanent) solution to the .com saturation.

The value and sell-through rate of .com is on shaky grounds. We'll see, won't we?

PS: I don't HATE .com. That's silly. It's just a matter of fact. The other options are more appealing to me. I see the writing on the wall.
 
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Dec 6, 2019
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#4
Ahh crappy the chart doesn't show up. Well my whole post above doesn't make much sense without that. I surely won't pay to help yas. Sry this is silly. Only in domaining would you have to 'pay' to post images and links. I'm sorry, but - ridiculous. I wouldn't be saying so if it didn't directly affect the outcome of my work above.