Secrets behind UltSearch and Buydomains

[cambler]

Your numbers are significantly off, though your presumption on the concept is correct.

 

[Chaiki]

Okay perhaps I am too green and new, but i do not get it. Name one 'good' name bd or ult have 'scripted' through 'their registrars' since all drop services went to the auction model. I can not remember seeing one go by.

 

[seeker]

BD constantly get them (even now).
For obvious reasons (a well as because I dont have the names in front of me) I wont name the domains, but they still get quiet a few good ones.

Also, dont forget...
The names they really want, you know, the real good names?
They have backup plans and use pool and other services as well, something I havent seen mentioned here.
Yes, BD use pool, NW etc... for some backorders, and *probably* get dicounts on final prices.

 

[skylight]

Your numbers are significantly off, though your presumption on the concept is correct.

Do you mean BD, ULT are aiming like few hundreds or even lesser top grade domains so they can has a high chance or almost half of the time they will get their top grade domains?

 

[David G]

Do you mean BD, ULT are aiming like few hundreds or even lesser top grade domains so they can has a high chance or almost half of the time they will get their top grade domains?

We are saying private firms like ult and BD tend to target mostly high grade names (not lesser grade). Since they target a smaller percentage than big public drop catchers it is much easier for their resources to win as they are not spread thin as others are.

 

[Donny Simonton]

I would like to say that since I work for a registrar, all of you are wrong. BD is in a completely different market than Ultsearch. BD is after volume more than Ultsearch is. I have in the past talked with reps from both companies.

The numbers mentioned before are completely off. If Pool where to go after more than 200 domains a day, it would be a miracle! On a daily basis one of our customers has a list of what they consider to be the top 50 domains, and out of that list pool will normally get about 20 of them. And he will be the only bidder on at least 5 of them.

There is a pattern to how all .com and .net domains are dropped. And I can tell you the microsecond that a particular domain will be dropped. It's really not very hard to figure out if you watch it for a few days, weeks, months.

I would say on a daily basis at least 60% of the domains are not registered that are in the drop pool. And then within 2 weeks about 30% of the ones not registered are reregistered by somebody who doesn't know or wants to deal with the drop pool.

So how do BD and Ultsearch do it? I could tell you, but.... :-#
Donny

 

[seeker]

I believe I know the 'predictability theory' of the dropping cycle as far as estimating with precision when a certain domain ill drop.
I do not believe it is possibile to predict it down to the milisecond.

What you can do, is predict the aproximate seconds it will fall on, and, at that time, concentrate (as an example) that 5 domains predicted to be dropped at the time to fire off then.

So, alphabetically and by size of characters, crossed with the total numbers of dropping domains (thats all for now that i will say), let say that I know the aproximate time example.com will drop.
Instead of launching my daily drop list of 300 domains all at once i want to catch, I 'launch' them in packets of 10.
each 10 is timed to go off within the 'seconds' window opening.
example.com exited.com etc... will go of at 2.12 PM EST at 2.14 PM EST another 'fighter package' of 10 will be launched etc...
Anyhow, I hope I made myself a little clearer.

 

[Donny Simonton]

I believe I know the 'predictability theory' of the dropping cycle as far as estimating with precision when a certain domain ill drop.
I do not believe it is possibile to predict it down to the milisecond.

Yes, and it's very easy to predict, actually predict is not a good word. I would say know exactly when a domain is being dropped.

I can tell you some internal numbers, on a daily basis about 50% of all registrars who participate in the drop attempt 15,000 failures for every successful registration. So imagine if you had 100 registrars like some people, if you registered a total of 200 domains in one day, you would actually do:
200 domains x 15,000 failures x 100 registrars = 300,000,000 attempts to register 200 domains. Talk about a waste of resources.

 

[cambler]

I respectfully disagree with your numbers, in terms of magnitude, not in terms of concept. But in terms of determining when a name is going to drop, yes, there is a method to the madness and yes, anyone who's done their research can get very accurate.

The issue becomes that even with that accuracy, there are still many other factors that come in to play. Like I said, one day I'll do a tell-all :-D

We are saying private firms like ult and BD tend to target mostly high grade names (not lesser grade). Since they target a smaller percentage than big public drop catchers it is much easier for their resources to win as they are not spread thin as others are.

With all due respect, this is just plain wrong. It doesn't work like that.

 

[Donny Simonton]

I respectfully disagree with your numbers.



With all due respect, this is just plain wrong. It doesn't work like that.

I completely agree with you. Resources doesn't mean much anymore. It's all about how you attack the domains that you are going after. If you only have one registrar will you get one of the top 5 domains each day? Not a chance in the world! If you had 10 registrars, you may get one of the top 5 one day a week if you only focused your efforts on those domains.

I laugh at those people, and actually welcome them. Because then then the domains from 5-50 or 5-1000 we will have a better chance to grab before they do. And in most cases 5 ok domains are better than 1 good domain.

Just my opinion, what do I know, we've only registered about 500,000 domains in the backorder system in the past year.

Donny

 

[cambler]

I'm sorry, perhaps I'm missing something. You say resources don't matter, but then you say that with only 1 registrar you stand no chance, but with 10 you stand a small chance.

Aren't those two statements contradictory?

 

[Donny Simonton]

I'm sorry, perhaps I'm missing something. You say resources don't matter, but then you say that with only 1 registrar you stand no chance, but with 10 you stand a small chance.

Aren't those two statements contradictory?

You stand a chance of not getting the top 1-5 domains dropped a day with 1 registrar. Because I would say that each one is attempted to be registered close to a 2 million times before and after it's registered. If you have 1 registrar you get 10 connections, your odds are a little better than winning the lottery even when you know exactly when it's being dropped. But with 10, your odds are 10 times greater, in Pools case 100 times greater.

For example, today we tried something with two different registrars, each had the same list. One knew when the domains were dropping one just randomized the list. Each had 1000 domains to register. The one who knew the order of the drop registered close to 500. The random order version got 246. So we registered close to 75% of the domains we went after, but the one that knew when the domains were dropping got more than double the amount of domains.

If you had 100 registrars, and had no idea when a domain was dropping, and you were attempting to register a domain and I with one registrar knew when the domain was dropping. You would probably only get the domain about 50% more of the time than me. It's about resources, but also how you manage those resources.

Donny

 

[cambler]

Right. So you've just described how resources matter, but you'd said that resources don't matter, so I wasn't sure what point you were trying to make.

 

[Donny Simonton]

Right. So you've just described how resources matter, but you'd said that resources don't matter, so I wasn't sure what point you were trying to make.

Resources do matter if you are going after the top 10 domains being dropped every day. But if you are interested getting the domains that will bring in $5-$20 a day, and roughly say 100 hits, you don't need the resources, just the knowledge. Anything that can increase your odds of getting it and not getting into a bidding war at somewhere is what you are looking for.

We have a customer of ours that every single day, puts in his list of what I would call crappy domains with us, with pool, namewinner, and with enom. We get about 70% of them everyday. Why? Because enom, namewinner and pool probably have nobody else bidding on them, so why waste their resources on that one $60 domain when they can go after the domain that 50 people are bidding on. And then the bidding war can start!

Donny

 

[cambler]

I'm glad you feel that way.

 

[Harmonia]

I'm sorry, but I still don't know how to calculate when does a domain drop...can someone please advice? thanks

 

[Domain]

After reading this thread and getting out my decoder ring, it sounds like your answer is "it depends".

It depends on the number of domains dropping that day, the alphabetical order and the length of domain, but not necessarily in that order.

I'm sorry, but I still don't know how to calculate when does a domain drop...can someone please advice? thanks

 

[Edwin]

I think one of the missing words in the puzzle is "latency"

 

[Dave Zan]

Right. So you've just described how resources matter, but you'd said that resources don't matter, so I wasn't sure what point you were trying to make.

Hi Chris.

I think Donny was using the "Yes, but..." argument. But essentially correct. :-D

Glad to see you guys discuss this interesting topic. Keep it up! k:

 

[cambler]

Well, once we agree on whether or not resources matter, we hit a brick wall where I'm not going to go into much more detail...