WLS: Judgement Day

[Nexus]

3 billion domain names were back-ordered on a fateful day in early March, 2004. The survivors of the nuclear fire called the war Judgment Day. They lived only to face a new nightmare: the war against the deep pockets. - Sarah Connor: Domainator 2 / Judgement Day

So, I'm not looking to antagonize, I just have an honest question about the predictions for the domain name industry after WLS launches.

QUESTION: Just so that its clear, for the people who feel all the good names will be immediately taken within a short period of time, after WLS is implemented... how much time is the guess before NO ONE should be able to find any good names that expire inside of a year?

The prediction that there will be a wailing a gnashing of teeth I believe will be true, but I'm not so sure that this will be an absolute thing.

Hasta la vista, baby. - The Domainator: Domainator 2: Judgement Day

I remain completely unconvinced of the "lock out" numbers, but just for the record, I want to know how long to wait before I'm looking at what was asserted as "impossible to find" (the "good name".) I'm looking for a clear span of time, like "1 week" or "2 weeks", or "1 day". After which... when we're into it, I'm going to be looking, and seeing what's there, and we'll be able to guage how well the predictions have panned out. One way or the other, should be interesting.

In the absence of true POLLING here are some options:
How long after WLS launches, will all "Good Names" be gone?

• Almost instantly...
• Inside of a Few Hours
• Under One Day
• No Longer than Three Days
• Within One Week
• Within One Month
• Under Three Months
• It'll Take Six Months to Figure How to Grab 'em All
• After One Year, its over forever
• There Will Always be "Good Names" to Get a WLS Slot on in Some Cateogory or Another...

"Good Names" are loosely defined as a name that could potentially drop (not Fortune 100 or anything), and could bring the owner a worth of over $750 (either they would gladly pay it, or sell the name for that much).

Ok, more respun dialogue...


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The Domainator: The Domain Coalition lawsuit is dropped. The WLS system goes on-line March 1st, 2004. Human decisions are removed from the domain name registration equation. Big players begin to buy WLS slots at a geometric rate. A patented big player WLS slot registration system called RegNet becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, March 10th. In a panic, Verisign tries to pull the plug.
Sarah Connor: And RegNet fights back.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sarah Connor: [narrating] Weller listened while the Domainator laid it all down: RegNet, Judgment Day, the history of things to come. It's not everyday you hear that you're responsible for 3 billion WLS slot registrations. He took it pretty well.
Lesley Weller: I feel like I'm gonna throw up.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sarah Connor: How are you supposed to know? F-cking men like you built the hydrogen bomb. Men like you thought it up. You think you're so creative. You don't know what it's like to really create something; to create a domain name; to feel it percolating in your own head? All you know how to create are damn monopolies...
John Connor: Mom.
Sarah Connor: --and ass-backward API's...
John Connor: Mom! We need to be a little more constructive here, okay?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Best,
~ Nexus

 

[bocajohnh]

Excellent piece. very well done, I can actually hear the Terminator and Sarah Connors voice while reading this post.

... at a geometric rate. A patented big player WLS slot registration system called RegNet becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, March 10th.....

... It's not everyday you hear that you're responsible for 3 billion WLS slot registrations. He took it pretty well.

.... --and ass-backward API's...

:cheesy: ROTFL

 

[QuantumBeam]

arty: it'll be a party

 

[WebCat]

OK Nexus, you want the truth? Can you HANDLE the truth?

1000 good drops per day x $39.00= $39,000.00

$39,000.00 x 365 days= $14,235,000.00

Between the 8 or 10 big players- that's chump change!

EVERY good drop from EVERY day, for the rest of recorded time will be reserved within 2 or 3 weeks. This will mean the end of what we do forever. Either you buy it from the owner, or buy the NRR from whoever holds it. No uncertainty, no random element, no competition. EXACTLY as THE MACHINES want it!

Mankind loses, the MACHINES win, and Windows is only OS available. YOU wanted a horror show? There it is..... in black and white! And all these people who say "Bring on the WLS....." will weep the loudest!

WebCat

 

[Nexus]

WebCat, yours is certainly the "truth" I've outlined above.

The premise of "chump" change is true in so far as the numbers go. I continue to find the tone of the conclusions unconvincing (if not the raw assumptions.) The TRUTH is that LIFE simply ISN'T an algorithm. Valuable name heuristics aren't a CONCRETE science that can be used to send men to the surface of the moon within a 10th of an inch off target.

That said, Big players are big players because they are smart. Everyone and their sister's uncle has heard the "buy the bank" strategy, but I doubt it will end there. Given the ingenuity of the Internet there are doubtless other "battle plans" being drawn up, other strategic attacks in the planning stages. The new landscape after WLS will be much different, more defined, but no less complex.

To borrow from more scifi... WLS is not the end. It is not the beginning of the end. It simply the end of the beginning. The Secondary Market is not being designed as a land run by despots and fools. It strikes me as something that is shaping up to effect the quality, consistency, and dependability of the domain name industry for a long time to come.

My two cents, :wink:
~ Nexus

 

[Luc]

Continued from Nexus' post....
-----------------------------------------------

February 2004...
Dominator 3. Rise of the WLS Autosnap bots.​

John Connor: All my life my mother told me there is a storm coming. The beginning of a war between man and dominator. 3 Billion WLS slots would vanish in an instant.

John Connor: It hasn't happened. No autosnap bots came. The Dominators didn't take over the market. We stopped WLS.

-----------------------------------------------

John Connor: No. No. You shouldn't even exist, the lawsuits filed by the registrars were suppose to destroy you. We stopped WLS!

Dominator: You only postponed it. WLS is INEVITABLE.

-----------------------------------------------

John Connor: So this new dominator? Is she better than you?

Dominator: The BD-X was designed for extreme autosnaps. Driven by 6 Xeon Processors, 10 Raid drives and a direct connection to the registry. It's arsenal includes lotsofdough.

John Connor: Meaning?

Dominator: It can control other registrars.

John Connor: But you'll find a way to destroy it?

Dominator: Unlikely. I'm using obsolete eNom drop scripts. The BD-X is a far more effective WLS autosnapping machine.

-----------------------------------------------

John Connor: We have to go to Washington. We have to stop WLS.

Dominator: Negative. I cannot jeopardize my mission.

John Connor: This is your mission. to save WLS slots! I'm giving you an order!

Dominator: I'm not programmed to take your orders. After the WLS war you will be broke as a joke.

John Connor: There doesn't have to be a war! We can stop it!

Dominator: There is insufficient time. The first autosnaps will be initiated at 6:18 PM.

John Connor: Sometime this year?

Dominator: Affirmative.

-----------------------------------------------

And we all know how the movie ended....

 

[Nexus]

John Connor: All my life my mother told me there is a storm coming. The beginning of a war between man and dominator. 3 Billion WLS slots would vanish in an instant.
John Connor: It hasn't happened. No autosnap bots came. The Dominators didn't take over the market. We stopped WLS.
-----------------------------------------------
John Connor: No. No. You shouldn't even exist, the lawsuits filed by the registrars were suppose to destroy you. We stopped WLS!

Nice... I can hear the drums thumping in the background and the theme music slowly rising.

~ Nexus

 

[DNWizardX9]

the WLS Is gonna suck

 

[Nexus]

the WLS Is gonna suck

For the majority of people in this forum (as opposed to the Internet at large), it will most definitely SUCK. And it will suck BIG TIME. For a very long time.

~ Nexus

 

[DNWizardX9]

maybe buydomains.com will buy all the domains in WLS

 

[bocajohnh]

EVERY good drop from EVERY day, for the rest of recorded time will be reserved within 2 or 3 weeks. This will mean the end of what we do forever. Either you buy it from the owner, or buy the NRR from whoever holds it. No uncertainty, no random element, no competition. EXACTLY as THE MACHINES want it!

Won't a secondary market develop where the caught names are auctioned off? If 20,000 names are dropping every day, won't this mean 20,000 names will now go the person who owns the WLS slot. Then, that person has the right to sell it to anyone they want, no?

 

[Luc]

Won't a secondary market develop where the caught names are auctioned off? If 20,000 names are dropping every day, won't this mean 20,000 names will now go the person who owns the WLS slot. Then, that person has the right to sell it to anyone they want, no?

Sure. But keep these things in mind.

The "person" in your example will usually be either BuyDomains or Ultimate
Search. We know that Ultimate Search doesn't really sell, and when they do they ask a bundle. I recently expressed interest in a so-so name with about 200 OVT and their asking price was $75,000, admitting that the name only gets a few hundred hits a day.

So, the only other player left that will sell these is BD, and we know that they are not cheap either. If they run the show, there is no reason for them to sell at fair prices. They'll dictate the costs and people will bid through the roof.

I hate the current system. I must say that Pool and a few big mouths destroyed it for everyone. Prices are astronomical, and it's really hard to justify the bids. But it's STILL possible to get names.

I worry that with WLS, it will be much much worse.

Though I've been preparing for it for months, I know I don't stand a chance against the three or so montsers with deep pockets, good connections and nearly infinite resources.

I've said this in countless threads before, providing mathematical proof of how
BD will win with the new system. Duke pointed out that BD said it WILL make more with WLS. So why are all these people cheering WLS?

Sure things aren't good now, but once WLS hits the market a lot of people
will be looking for something else to do...

Luc L.

 

[Nexus]

maybe buydomains.com will buy all the domains in WLS

That would be a less fuzzier prediction than all the "good" domain names going to BuyDomains, but just as likely not to happen.

Won't a secondary market develop where the caught names are auctioned off? If 20,000 names are dropping every day, won't this mean 20,000 names will now go the person who owns the WLS slot. Then, that person has the right to sell it to anyone they want, no?

Yeah. I'd imagine so. In fact, WLS is part of universal secondary market system Verisign has engineered. So much vitriol has spilled over whether we'll all feel raped by WLS, that not much attention has been given to this aspect called "NameStore".

Sure things aren't good now, but once WLS hits the market a lot of people will be looking for something else to do...

Very true.

~ Nexus

 

[bocajohnh]

In fact, WLS is part of universal secondary market system Verisign has engineered. So much vitriol has spilled over whether we'll all feel raped by WLS, that not much attention has been given to this aspect called "NameStore".
~ Nexus

So just like "in the beginning", there was the original marketplace for those that thought of an idea, paid netsol the $35 to register the name. Then the auction sites sprouted up to serve the secondary market.

So there was NIC, and Afternic. So soon there will be WLS and ? AfterWLS ?

 

[chatcher]

Though I've been preparing for it for months, I know I don't stand a chance against the three or so montsers with deep pockets, good connections and nearly infinite resources.
Luc L.

You may not be able to compete at the SAME game the big guys are playing, but then you really can't do that today, either.

I have my doubts about how many WLS slots will be bought "pre-expiration" for 99% of all domain names. It's a gamble. I would guess it will be just about the same as Snapbacks today. Today if you are early, you can find Snapbacks available on decent but not phenomenal names. If you wait until the day of the drop, you usually can't. I don't see why WLS will be used much differently. (Of course the success rate of a WLS slot held on the day of the drop will be MUCH different.) One other interesting difference is that there will be no reason not to contact the previous registrant if you don't hold the WLS slot, which will lead to fewer valuable names dropping.

But I digress. My point is that if you are trying to play the UltSearch/BD game on a low budget, you might want to re-think your strategy. There are many niches available in the domain name business with millionaire-making potential that don't require a $10,000 bid at Pool for a mediocre name. If you can't find one of them, it's because you aren't thinking very hard! If two people started in the business on Day 1 of the post-WLS era with the same amount of capital, and one of them bought only WLS slots and the other only registered available names at $6.95 each (intelligently, not willy-nilly), I'd say the odds favor #2 making his million first!

 

[Duke]

My point is that if you are trying to play the UltSearch/BD game on a low budget, you might want to re-think your strategy. There are many niches available in the domain name business with millionaire-making potential that don't require a $10,000 bid at Pool for a mediocre name. If you can't find one of them, it's because you aren't thinking very hard!

Those are some of the truest words ever spoken about this business. Amazes me how few people understand that.

 

[Nexus]

Those are some of the truest words ever spoken about this business. Amazes me how few people understand that.

Amen to that.

~ Nexus

 

[Nexus]

I have my doubts about how many WLS slots will be bought "pre-expiration" for 99% of all domain names. It's a gamble. I would guess it will be just about the same as Snapbacks today. Today if you are early, you can find Snapbacks available on decent but not phenomenal names. If you wait until the day of the drop, you usually can't. I don't see why WLS will be used much differently. (Of course the success rate of a WLS slot held on the day of the drop will be MUCH different.) One other interesting difference is that there will be no reason not to contact the previous registrant if you don't hold the WLS slot, which will lead to fewer valuable names dropping.

To which I keep hearing someone say, "You don't understand, big players will simply buy ALL the good names in one shot! Look at the numbers!" Please view my other thread for an exploration of what I feel the "reality" of "registering all the good names" is (WLS: Diary of a "Big Player"). People are making the mistake of taking a very chaotic result, and working backwards to profitability.

Example: Look how many names dropped! Look how much they went for! See how many WLS subs could be purchased with this money! If time machines really existed, I would whole-heartedly support this. There is a REASON why eNom demanded the registrars SHARE the names of domain names scheduled for deletion in the next month as part of the WLS system.
http://www.icannwatch.org/essays/icann-wls3c.doc
There is a reason why most any expired name search does NOT include searching for when names "expire" on a certain date (according to the Whois), instead focusing on "ON-HOLD, RGP, and PENDINGDELETE". There's very good reasons for this. Reasons that vanish the further you go back in time.

~ Nexus

 

[garymayor]

Those of us that have been around for years will remember the days when you had to be smarter than the other person. Instead of nowadays when the bigger your wallet the more you get.
The world revolvs around people with big wallets and if WLS doesn't launch and stay than that will prove domain dropping resolvs around big wallets.

WLS is a way for any one to have a go it doesn't matter how big you can bid on a auction at pool all the matters is when you know what domains will drop. Look into that and if WLS takes off you'll be a winner rarther than the big wallet players.

 

[Luc]

Those of us that have been around for years will remember the days when you had to be smarter than the other person. Instead of nowadays when the bigger your wallet the more you get.
The world revolvs around people with big wallets and if WLS doesn't launch and stay than that will prove domain dropping resolvs around big wallets.

WLS is a way for any one to have a go it doesn't matter how big you can bid on a auction at pool all the matters is when you know what domains will drop. Look into that and if WLS takes off you'll be a winner rarther than the big wallet players.

that's the funniest thing i've ever heard.