THE GREAT DEPRESSION 2 and its effect on the domain name market

[Gerry]

The layoffs here where I am at (outside Winston-Salem) NC just keep piling up to staggering numbers.

Hanes Brands (those socks, underwear, Leggs and women's items) just announced another round of huge layoffs of blue-collar and white-collar staff as well as the closing of a plant here.

Their world headquarters are located just a few miles from my house. That plant is perhaps another 2 additional miles.

I heard some staggering numbers of the consequences of the auto industry (just one maker, by the way) filing bankruptcy would have the potential of an additional 220,000 out of work. Even though on paper bankruptcy may be a better option for them than a bail out, a bankruptcy would force the Unions to renegotiate contracts along with all their suppliers. It would still protect them from creditors while reorganizing.

The reason I mention this is I wonder how many people employed in mainstream jobs and businesses dabble in domaining as a side venture?

And the effect of something like this would have an impact on a global scale, not just a US issue.

 

[lordbyroniv]

YUP - This economy is sick

Buy only hard assets

Gold, Art, Quality domains (proven monetization)

Stay away from the junk

Another urrrrrrrrrgly day today

10 Year Treasury at 2.99% Wowza

 

[lordbyroniv]

We are now in Wave B of the SuperCycle

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/

 

[jm525]

I think you're being a little pessimistic about the economy.....the 1930's are lot different than today's market. We will have a severe recession for a year maybe two is my prediction.

 

[draggar]

I think you're being a little pessimistic about the economy.....the 1930's are lot different than today's market. We will have a severe recession for a year maybe two is my prediction.

I agree, except for the length (I think things will look a lot better in 6 months). Back in the 'great depression" unemployment was what, 25%? We're now looking at what, 8%? Plus, with the ability for people to create their own jobs and new businesses as easily as they can now, as opposed to back then, it would take a lot more work to get to where we were during the great depression.

Home sales in south Florida have been slightly up the past few months - many people are refinancing their mortgages to lower their payments (and get extra cash each month) - both are signs of optimism.

 

[south]

I agree, except for the length (I think things will look a lot better in 6 months). Back in the 'great depression" unemployment was what, 25%? We're now looking at what, 8%? Plus, with the ability for people to create their own jobs and new businesses as easily as they can now, as opposed to back then, it would take a lot more work to get to where we were during the great depression.

Home sales in south Florida have been slightly up the past few months - many people are refinancing their mortgages to lower their payments (and get extra cash each month) - both are signs of optimism.

True, but the biggest concern is how much of a drag the trillions in new debt will have on the economy, and for how long, especially with an aging workforce, and high unemployment. Our consumer driven economy does not work well without employed people buying goods & services.

It's not going to be pretty.

 

[lordbyroniv]

Is it me or is this Depression really picking up steam ?

Tomorrows job numbers should be interesting

 

[Theo]

I get depression from your doomsday obsession.

 

[Compassion]

YUP - This economy is sick

Buy only hard assets

Gold, Art, Quality domains (proven monetization)

Stay away from the junk

Another urrrrrrrrrgly day today

10 Year Treasury at 2.99% Wowza

Another safe gain for gold and silver ....

I was screaming from the tree tops to get in silver 40% ago in November

 

[Gerry]

10 Year Treasury at 2.99% Wowza

Finding alternatives to the treasury is what got the world in this mess.

Buying mortgage contracts buy the bundle all proved to be too much of a shiny start.

Banks across the globe thought why just 3% when we can have 5% or 6%.

Thus billions (estimates put the total at 3 trillion) dollars went into this paper. 3% compared to 5% may not be that big of a deal, yet it is when your are putting millions or billions into this.

Seriously, that was the reason. Those world banks had a nice ride on the crest of the wave. But what they did not see was the tsunami building behind it and eventually overtook that crest and smashed it!

Now, care to take a guess as what safe guaranteed investments those global banks are putting their money in?

I'll give you two hints...it's not silver and it's not gold.

 

[Raider]

Home sales in south Florida have been slightly up the past few months - many people are refinancing their mortgages to lower their payments (and get extra cash each month) - both are signs of optimism.

If you had to pick one year where home prices are comparable to past years, what year would it be?

Living in California, I would say 2001-02

 

[lordbyroniv]

I get depression from your doomsday obsession.

Just for the record

This is purely academic for me

I just see the car driving off the cliff and I find it fascinating

After the Dow crashes below 6000 I may reassess the direction

But for now I see alot of excess credit being wringed out of the system, and hence the velocity of money slowing down

I see prices on most all assets staying the same or going down significantly

Nothing is going up for a long time

Hence, speculation is purged from the market for a few years

The greater fool theory of American Capitalism is over . . .

for now

 

[www.AmCy.org]

If you had to pick one year where home prices are comparable to past years, what year would it be? Living in California, I would say 2001-02

I'd say around 2003, and still regressing. Check out these charts:

http://www.wsjprimerate.us/new_home_sales_price_history.htm#newhomecostchart

http://www.wsjprimerate.us/preowned_used-home_sales_price_history.htm#usedhomecostchart

Is it me or is this Depression really picking up steam? Tomorrows job numbers should be interesting

Tomorrow's numbers are going to cause some jaws to drop. Did you see the new claims reports today? 626,000 new claims for unemployment benefits last week:

http://www.nyse.tv/stocks/2009/02/new-unemployment-insurance-claims-for.htm

 

[wussadotcom]

This looks a bit crazy... bad luck~~

 

[lordbyroniv]

http://mises.org/story/3281

The experiment is almost over

I can smell the end coming

 

[Theo]

Better trade those gold bars for some chicken and seeds.

 

[lordbyroniv]

Better trade those gold bars for some chicken and seeds.

I own some land in Kentucky with a stream where I can fish all day long

Me and mine are taken care of

 

[Theo]

That's great, John. So when is the Second Coming due? I need to make sure I don't have a dental appointment that day.

 

[Gerry]

Better trade those gold bars for some chicken and seeds.

Interesting...

Early last summer there was a "run on" tillers.

Not kidding one bit...all the local retailers and Home Centers were sold out.

There was a backlog of back orders that makers like MTD and Troybilt could not meet.

The homeowner is starting to their land as a valuable commodity.

It is not worth selling part of your land (and in many developments you can not) but you can certainly put that land to use. Good use!

A small simple garden will go a long way.

I would imagine we'll see another run on home gardening supplies and implements.

Gives fresh meaning to grow your own.

 

[lordbyroniv]

This stimulus bill was the final nail in the coffin

Who's president , Obama or Pelosi ?

Hard to tell